Thursday 8th July 2021

The summer re-start has been delayed again thanks to another weak low pressure trough idling in from the west, but it is coming…summer will be coming…ho…no don’t say it. Way too obvious.

It does feel a bit like in May, where I could see the pattern change but it took longer (much longer in May) to arrive than expected. Although the weather for July so far does fit in reasonably well with my seasonal forecast – these delays to the restart of summer do make me nervous, yet I am pretty confident that next week will see the restart.

Alas, more showers to come first.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

A small chance of a heavy shower this evening, but these fading quite quickly – variable cloud follows with temperatures down to around 13’C.

Friday will see plenty more cloud but there will be sunny spells too, a bit more sunshine than recent days but still overall more cloud than sun. A chance of a shower in the afternoon, say around 30% chance and warm, around 21’C. Cloud tending to thicken overnight, some patchy rain arriving before dawn, down to around 14’C.

Saturday sees the next pesky weak low pressure trough arrive on the scene.

It starts cloudy with showery outbreaks of rain – it should be mostly light/moderate. Gradually during the afternoon brighter skies will push in from the west, though with one or two scattered showers. On the cool side for July, 18’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

It’s Coming Home Day looks rather cloudy with some occasional sunny breaks. Some showers also likely at times, perhaps heavy, but uncertain as to how widespread they may be – certainly could stay dry but I wouldn’t put money on it. Around 20’C. Showers or rain likely at some point in the evening or overnight – again uncertainty about timing and track on this – potentially heavy/very heavy and around 15’C.

Monday is uncertain due to the positioning of the low pressure trough, though it will be a more notable feature by this point. Likely unsettled, the question is really over whether it will be cloudy with spells of heavy/very heavy rain or sunshine and heavy showers – the former more likely. A small chance of thunder. Around 18’C, give or take. Showers or rain still possible overnight.

By Tuesday the low pressure trough will be over the east of the UK – though high pressure starting to nudge in from the west, helped along by ex-tropical storm Elsa to its north-west.

Details again sketchy for Tuesday – more likely a case of sunshine and heavy showers, but smaller chances of something drier and also smaller chances of more general rain. Around 20’C, perhaps a tad more.

By Wednesday, high pressure should be starting to influence a bit more, so it should be an improvement from Tuesday, but still good chances of a shower or three, and still likely plenty of cloud around, but some sunshine. Around 21’C.

Thursday should see high pressure just nudging a tad closer. Still a small chance of a shower, still plenty of cloud at times – especially the middle of the day, but warmer and a bit closer to what you might expect in summer.

By Friday, probably dry (no promise), probably more sunshine – but still a long way from glorious with plenty of cloud still likely to bubble up. And warm, around 22’C, give or take.

Next weekend should be dry and fine – sunshine amounts and temperatures are uncertain at this stage. Could be mostly sunny, could be mostly cloudy, could be anywhere from around 19’C to 27’C – all will depend on where high pressure situates itself.

I still expect most of the latter half of July, and first part of August to be broadly very warm/hot, decent amounts of sunshine – small chances of thunderstorms or the odd weak weather front spreading down from the north-west.

Next full forecast should be Monday, but who knows whether I’ll be capable after celebrating/commiserating the final of Euro 2020. Have a good weekend.

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