Thursday 8th April 2021

Well, it was less cold today but Arctic air is coming back – and yes, there is chance of a little wintryness again.

Thanks to Gary for the photograph.

Cloudy to start tonight – it will thin somewhat for a while, and then thicken again towards dawn. Down to around 2’C.

Friday will be mostly cloudy as a weather front slowly sinks south. The morning might see a bit of sunshine – a little showery rain too but not much. More in the way of showery rain in the afternoon, the odd heavy burst possible. 10’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, the odd spot of light rain possible – down to around 3’C.

By Saturday we are caught in the middle of milder air trying to push up from the south, albeit around a developing area of low pressure over France – and colder Arctic air trying to move down from the north.

The forecast is a pretty close call, though more likely it will be mostly cloudy with occasional rain – though it will depend on the exact position of the developing low pressure. A small, say 15% chance that it stays mostly sunny, colder with the odd shower, but 85% chance that we are just under the weather front. Cold, 5’C and a small chance that any remaining showery rain could even turn to sleet or wet snow in the evening. Wintry showers still possible overnight, particularly at first – cloud should thin as the night goes on and it will be cold with a frost possible, down to around 1’C – colder if cloud thins more than currently expected.

Sunday should start sunny, or maybe hazy. Cloud will bubble up with a fair scattering of showers – rain, sleet, snow, hail, thunder all possible – some heavy. Feeling cold in a northerly wind, 8’C. Clear skies overnight and frosty, down to around -3’C.

Beer garden re-opening day starts sunny. Cloud will bubble up with a scattering of showers in the afternoon – less than on Sunday, and of rain as we will have somewhat milder air in a weak westerly flow. 11’C. Clear skies overnight, a frost probable, down to around 0’C.

Tuesday again starts sunny. Quite a lot of cloud will bubble up, limited sunshine once it does. A small chance of a shower, 11’C. Clear spells overnight, still some cloud around – down to around 1’C with a frost in places.

By Wednesday it looks like high pressure will be loosely to our east – which is a much more favourable position for temperatures.

Uncertainty on cloud amounts this far away but I’d suggest more sunshine than cloud the more likely outcome. Feeling milder, 13’C – maybe a tad more. Chilly overnight, down to around 2’C.

Confidence reducing by Thursday, but more likely dry with some sunny spells and mild, perhaps quite warm – somewhere between 12’C and 16’C.

I think from this point there are several directions that the weather could go for Friday and into next weekend.

The slightly more likely one would see a vague southerly flow, dry, quite sunny, quite warm – somewhere between 16’C to 18’C. A close second more likely outcome would be a cooler south-easterly or easterly flow, dry, quite cloudy, say around 11’C. Another alternative, slightly less likely again would be a vague southerly flow but with a slack low pressure moving in from the west – so quite warm, some sunshine but some heavy showers too. And a reload of Arctic air remains possible also!

Roughly 40/30/20/10 in terms of splitting those chances down – the models were keen on keeping the cold northerly until near the end of the month until just two days ago (I wasn’t convinced and hadn’t changed my forecast), so things have changed for the better…unless you like it cold in April.

And signals for warm, sunny weather for May and June have strengthened recently. A recent change – only a week ago previous such signals had weakened quite a bit, so maybe there is still a bit of flux to come. But I remain hopeful for plenty of warm, sunny weather for the latter part of spring and early summer.

Have a good weekend.

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