Thursday 7th May 2020

Summer. Followed by an Arctic blast.

Thanks to Neil for the photograph – not only glorious images but also landscape-orientated and large, so they fit the website perfectly!

First time that I’ve written the forecast with a glass of red wine to hand for some months…possibly all year…so do forgive me if I go off on a tangent about my sock collection or something. I’ll try to keep it relevant.

Tonight sees spells of mid/high level cloud, down to around 9’C.

Bank Holiday Friday will see long spells of hazy sunshine. Some fair weather cloud in the afternoon too – probably less high cloud by that point and a very small chance of a heavy shower. Currently I expect them to be further north but I’m not certain of that. 10% chance at most. Very warm, we might squeeze 24’C. Reasonably clear overnight, down to around 10’C.

Saturday will see long spells of sunshine again. Still some high cloud around though it should be higher up and hence the sunshine less hazy than Friday. Also a bit of fair weather cloud and a small chance of a heavy shower later – again I think the risk is far greater further north, so a 10% chance at most. We might just reach 25’C – which in my book, is officially “HOT”. Quite hot anyway. Fairly cloudy overnight, around 11’C.

For Sunday, we see the Arctic blast arriving.

These charts show the difference in temperature compared to average for the time of year – you can see Saturday is much warmer – Sunday is much colder. Do you find these charts useful or confusing?!

We should still have the warmer air for the morning, and we may reach 16’C or so. Rather cloudy, perhaps a bit of hazy sunshine and a bit of scattered showery rain too.

There may be a bit of sunshine by evening – but it will be much colder, say 8’C in the evening in a cold wind – you will really notice it. Quite cloudy and windy overnight, down to around 5’C.

Monday looks fairly cloudy but there should be a bit of sunshine – and a small chance of a light shower. Around 11’C and feeling chilly in the wind. Clear spells developing overnight – a frost possible, temperatures somewhere between -1’C and 2’C – depending on how quickly cloud clears.

Tuesdsay sees high pressure in charge. Still likely a lot of cloud and in the cool air mass, sunshine limited but some, more likely early morning and evening. Around 12’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 2’C.

Wednesday again still likely sees a lot of cloud around, though the uncertainty on cloud amounts edges up. Still a cool breeze and around 13’C. Another chilly night expected.

More of the same for Thursday, though we might, I stress might, just be able to pick up a slightly warmer flow directed by the low pressure over France – which seems to have been there for weeks now. There should also be more sunshine than cloud, though still cloudy spells. Maybe 15’C.

There is also a chance of importing some rain either Thursday day, night or Friday from the low pressure system over France.

This is where the forecast breaks down and becomes too uncertain to do in details. I know you were all hoping for a detailed forecast for next weekend for that extra 20 minute daily walk that you might be granted to do…as if you haven’t broken the lockdown rules already! I think I’ve only broken the rules twice, which surprises me given my normal rebellious nature. I keep thinking about getting the tube to go one stop then walk back. Remind me of my teenage years…ahhhh.

Gosh did I get this far before rambling?

So Friday and next weekend. No details as such, but the more likely outcome is that the low pressure over France/Spain sends warmer air around it towards the UK – maybe 20’C, but certainly warmer than during the week.

However that also brings increased chances of heavy showers or even rain at some point during the weekend too. Doesn’t guarantee it – but the chance is increased.

I think a more southerly or perhaps more likely south-westerly flow will be around for the latter third of May, bringing warm or very warm conditions at times, but also increased chances of heavy showers, perhaps thundery. I wouldn’t rule out a short unsettled Atlantic-based spell.

June still looks like the best of the summer months in terms of sunshine and temperatures. “Spanish Plume” type events seem very feasible, with their associated 2-3 days of hot/humid weather followed by a thundery breakdown.

July onwards more mixed. I still think there will be hot spells during summer, perhaps briefly very hot at times – but also some wet weather too.

Signals were fairly strong for an unsettled and cool August but they have relaxed recently, so will be interesting to see if that becomes a trend. I’m now on the fence for August – it has in recent years been the poorest of summer months.

I wish you a pleasant bank holiday weekend – don’t have too much fun. I did expect that I’d ramble more but appaently not…maybe one glass of wine wasn’t enough. Ask me a question…maybe I’ll answer it. Nothing on meteorology though…my brain needs rest now!

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