Thursday 7th January 2021

Staying cold. But a bit less cold at times.

Thanks to Caroline for the photograph. Much shorter introduction this time, huh?

Mostly cloudy and cold tonight, some mist or freezing fog in places, a small chance of a light snow shower and down to around -3’C.

Friday starts cloudy – some freezing fog in places. Generally staying cloudy all day, a small chance of a sleet or snow shower, which could give a very slight covering – but no higher than a 20% chance, most showers should be further north and west of our area. A little brightness at times in the afternoon. Around 2’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around -3’C, so frosty, perhaps icy, with freezing fog forming in some places also.

Saturday sees high pressure trying to squeeze in from the west.

Good sunny spells once any fog clears, and around 4’C. Clear and frosty overnight, down to around -3’C – perhaps colder, especially in more sheltered spots. Freezing fog a risk again.

Sunday may start foggy, but this should clear into sunny spells, albeit hazy. Cloudy at times from late morning, but bright at other times. Still cold, 3’C. Likely frosty overnight, with fog a risk once more, but a bit of uncertainty over cloud amounts – assuming down to around -2’C, but if more cloudy then maybe a shade above 0’C.

Monday looks fairly cloudy. A bit of brightness at times, but generally staying mostly cloudy. The odd spot of light rain possible later. Becoming less cold, around 5’C by the end of the day in a light westerly breeze. Cloudy overnight with some showery rain – not amounting to that much, 7’C.

Tuesday is uncertain, but the more likely outcome is that the overnight weather front is still hanging around, bringing a cloudy day with some occasional rain. Low confidence though. Around 8’C.

I cannot actually give you any more details from here I’m afraid – I’m even tempted to delete what I wrote about Tuesday!

I’m stumped as to how the low pressure develops from Monday night and whether it re-introduces colder air from the north, or stays mild and wet for a couple of days.

Overall, I think we are going into a changeable pattern, swapping milder conditions with rain at times to colder, drier conditions with frost/fog overnight. But what part of the changeable pattern we will be in for Wednesday and the subsequent days is not certain.

But even the changeable pattern I am not yet convinced by – it could instead remain fairly cold and dry.

The SSW event doesn’t help with the short-term uncertainty – the model runs have become notably unstable over the last few days with some rather different output every time they are run.

And there is no update on how the SSW is going to play out – I don’t think enough damage has been done to the stratospheric polar vortex yet to change my previously expected weather patterns for late January and February to a significant cold spell.

But there are further warming events expected which could do enough damage. We shall see.

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