Thursday 7th April 2022

Well, the colder air is back, but at least the weekend will be reasonably fine.

Thanks to Clare for the photograph.

Showers fading and skies clearing this evening, down to around 1’C with a frost for the more sheltered spots. Cloud thickening somewhat as the night goes on, with rain trying to push up from the south.

Friday starts cloudy, perhaps some hazy sunshine. I cannot totally rule out a spot of light rain, but it should be dry – the rain not quite getting this far north. From around midday there will be more in the way of sunny spells, though still cloud around and a small chance of a shower. Reaching 11’C but feeling chilly in the northerly breeze. Clear spells overnight, down to around 0’C with a frost for most, though perhaps more central urban areas escaping – close call.

Saturday sees high pressure building from the west.

Starting sunny, a fair amount of cloud will bubble up – roughly the same amount of cloud and sunshine during the rest of the day. A small chance of a shower but most likely staying dry. 11’C so still on the chilly side. Mostly clear skies overnight though some high cloud at times, likely frosty for all, down to around -1’C or so.

Sunday will feel a bit better, we’ll pick up more of a southerly breeze so temperatures around 13’C. Hazy sunshine mostly, some bits of fair weather cloud too, though a reasonably pleasant day overall. Fairly cloudy overnight, the wind picking up and down to around 4’C or so.

Monday sees low pressure trying to push in – but also bringing some warmer air. However this is quite a complex development so details are a bit hazy. The development of this low will pretty much decide whether we get a chilly or a warm Easter.

Monday looks fairly cloudy but bright with some hazy sunshine at times. A couple of afternoon heavy showers possible, though a bit of uncertainty on this development at the moment. Fairly windy but a warmer flow, 15’C should be reached – however there is a fair amount of uncertainty and something cooler is possible, closer to 11’C – but less likely. Fairly cloudy overnight, some showery rain likely, which could be heavy. Around 9’C.

Tuesday is likely to see further rain or showers, though details uncertain. Likewise temperatures are uncertain – they could be anything from 8’C to 18’C.

Wednesday is uncertain, though fairly cloudy, limited sunny spells and showers is the slightly more likely outcome. Again temperatures highly uncertain and could be anything from 7’C to 18’C.

Well, it is too uncertain to be worth attempting to go into detail from here, though there are broad patterns possible that I can outline.

One involves high pressure building to our south which would help with warmth and possibly sunshine. One involves high pressure trying to build to our north – which will make it cool. One sees low pressure trying to push in from the west – though this is a bit less likely.

It’s really down to what happens with the low pressure on Monday/Tuesday, and how that develops as to how and where high pressure builds.

So I’m afraid there is still no clear answer for Easter, however dry weather is more likely than wet weather, and warmer air is more likely than colder air. Which means the more likely outcome is at least some pleasant, warmish, sunny weather.

That said, all the usual possible spring outcomes are possible for Easter. Don’t plan the BBQ just yet…well…maybe do plan it but make sure you have an indoors just in case!

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