Thursday 6th June 2020

Cool and showery is the theme. Well, I was ready for something different.

Apologies that I still haven’t done my summer forecast. Haven’t had the energy or motivation. Will do it this weekend.

This evening and the first part of the night will be cloudy with scattered showers, one or two on the heavy side. Likely dry and fairly clear by dawn, 9’C.

Friday will see more cloud than sunshine, but there will be sunny spells. Also some showers, some heavy – a small chance of a rumble of thunder but not especially likely. 15’C and feeling cool in the wind. Showers fading in the evening, cloud clearing overnight, northerly wind becoming quite strong, down to around 6’C.

Saturday sees low pressure to our east in control, with a cut-off low right over eastern England.

Saturday starts sunny, but a band of showery rain will spread south, bringing 2-3 hours of showery rain from roughly late morning. Some sunny spells will follow but also some scattered showers, could well be thundery, hail and torrential downpours possible too. Strong winds too, 15’C at best – that does assume a bit of sunshine! Showers clearing in the evening, variable cloud overnight, down to around 7’C.

Sunday looks quite cloudy – some limited sunshine at times though probably hazy. Showers are likely to develop though there is a bit of uncertainty on how widespread and how heavy. My educated hunch is less than Saturday but still a few scattered showers and they could well be heavy – thunder possible but less so than Saturday. Around 15’C in lighter winds. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 7’C.

Monday will be more boring. Quite cloudy – some sun at first and occasionally during the day, a small chance of a shower. 16’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 5’C.

Tuesday looks quite cloudy. A bit of sun at times, a small chance of a light shower. Otherwise nothing much to note. Around 16’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 6’C.

Wednesday continues this nothingness. Stuck in between high pressure to our south-west and a large area of high pressure over Russia.

There should be more sunshine – probably some cloudy spells too, but unsure on that at the moment. Temperatures picking up again, maybe around 19’C. Confidence is slipping a bit though.

As I mentioned, not especially confident by now, but I think we may pick up an easterly breeze by Thursday, but sourced from the Russian high and the hot weather over there. Sunny spells, a small chance of a shower and becoming warm again – say 22’C, as the more likely outcome.

There is instead a chance of low pressure developing over us – still generating an easterly flow, but rain/showers.

I do think that low pressure will develop (as the most likely outcome) but more likely it develops to our south either Thursday/Friday. This will mean the warm/very warm easterly but also a chance of heavy showers or even longer spells of rain late next week and into next weekend.

Very uncertain at this point as to where said low pressure will be, if it does develop – and hence whether there will be any rain/showers/thunderstorms associated. But I think it is the most likely outcome that it does develop either over us or slightly more likely to our south, and I’m fairly confident of this warm/very warm easterly flow.

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