Thursday 5th November 2020

Gosh is it Thursday already? Time flies when you are having fun…past tense obviously.

So high pressure in control for the next couple of days keeping it settled, but shifting east and allowing some showery rain to spread up from the south Sunday/Monday, with a milder flow.

Details in a minute, but a thank you to Paula for the photograph first.

Tonight will be clear and chilly, fog will form in some places, down to around 2’C – the more sheltered spots that don’t become foggy may see a slight frost.

Friday sees high pressure slip to the east, allowing a south-easterly flow to assert itself.

Any fog patches clearing reasonably quickly, long spells of sunshine follow, some cloud in the afternoon but broadly still often sunny. Around 11’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 2’C – perhaps some fog patches forming though less likely than recent nights, and some sheltered spots seeing a slight frost.

Saturday starts reasonably sunny. There will be high cloud often through the day, making the sunshine hazy thanks to low pressure to our south-west – and it is this low pressure pumping up milder air too – around 14’C. Mist or fog may form overnight for a time – becoming cloudier later with a chance of a bit of showery rain by dawn from a weakening weather front…down to around 8’C.

Sunday will be mostly cloudy. A little bit of showery rain possible at times, more likely in the morning or early afternoon. The odd sunny spell, there may also be a little morning mist/fog in places. Very mild, 15’C in a southerly breeze. Mostly cloudy overnight, mist or fog forming in places, around 11’C.

Monday sees low pressure edge closer to the UK but start to disintegrate. It will be mostly cloudy and very mild, some occasional showery rain – though dry for much of the time. 15’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, the odd splash of rain still possible, and mist or fog may form again, around 11’C.

By Tuesday we have what is unofficially known as a Sceuro block – high pressure over Scandinavia that extends south into Europe.

High pressure over Scandinavia is one of the most common winter cold weather patterns – bringing an easterly such as in February 2018 – however when it extends into Europe, there is no cold easterly flow possible and instead the UK often ends up in the battle ground with weather fronts trying to cross the UK, getting stuck and fizzling out – and this repeats. And we end up in a mildish southerly or south-westerly flow.

These kind of blocks can be difficult to break down.

Tuesday itself looks rather cloudy, a bit of sunshine at times, the odd splash of rain possible. Around 14’C. Fog possible overnight.

Wednesday or Thursday looks like an attempt by weather fronts to spread rain across – but too uncertain at this stage whether they’ll make it this far east, or when.

So generally for the rest of next week and into the weekend, the aforementioned pattern of often cloudy, generally mildish, often dry – but at some points weather fronts possibly making progress into the Sceuro block set up to our east.

As I said, these kind of blocking patterns can go on for some time. That said, I do think there is a decent chance of the high pressure block orientating into a favourable position for a notable cold spell either in the latter part of November or during December.

Whether that is a cold, frosty but sunny type of cold spell – or something more changeable involving the s-word is way, way, way too early to know.

I wish you a boring weekend.

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