Thursday 5th May 2022

Warmer…at last. Not perfect, but a pleasant few days this weekend and something a bit more mixed next week – but definitely warmer.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

Some cloud this evening, fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C. A small chance of fog forming in one or two spots towards dawn, but most places not.

Friday sees high pressure over the south of the UK, low pressure close to the north.

Warm with hazy sunshine, the high cloud gradually thickening as the day goes on, notably from mid-afternoon onwards as a weather front approaches from the north-west. Reaching around 21’C. That weather front bringing occasional bits of showery rain in the evening and overnight, though dry most of the time. No lower than 11’C.

Saturday likely starts cloudy, a little bit of rain still possible. Gradually by around late morning (give or take) sunshine amounts will start increasing, though still a small chance of a shower. Temperatures somewhere between 18’C and 20’C, depending on how quick the morning cloud breaks up. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 7’C.

Sunday morning sees hazy sunshine. Quite a lot of fair weather cloud bubbling up for early/mid afternoon, potentially quite overcast at the most cloudy point, but becoming sunnier later again. Reaching around 19’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though some high cloud by dawn. A bit chillier, down to around 5’C.

Next week is a bit of a battle between an awakening Atlantic trying to bring low pressure systems across the UK, and much warmer air trying to spread up from the south. Both should influence our weather, but the warmer air from the south should be the greater influence.

Monday will be warm with hazy sunshine. Temperatures reaching around 21’C with a notable breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 11’C.

Tuesday again looks warm with hazy sunshine – a small chance of a shower. A bit more uncertainty on temperatures, somewhere between 18’C and 22’C, though the upper bound more likely.

Uncertainty increases by Wednesday. We could be in a more westerly flow with fresher conditions, a few showers possible but some sunny spells and temperatures around 16’C to 18’C. Alternatively, the low pressure is further north and the warmth will be increasing, with temperatures between 22’C and 25’C. Both outcomes roughly as likely as each other.

Thursday is more uncertain. A small chance of a wet day, a slightly less small chance of another very warm day – but the somewhat more likely outcome sees fair conditions, a small chance of a shower and temperatures around 18’C to 20’C.

Friday has similar levels of uncertainty, but for next weekend there is more confidence of high pressure pushing up from the south, with temperatures perhaps looking towards the mid-20’s. Far from certain, other usual spring weather outcomes possible, but warm/very warm with sunny spells is the more likely outcome with more confidence that I would usually have this far out.

This may well hang on into the week after – though by the end of the month we should have something more changeable, still some short dry/sunny spells but also some showery spells too. Temperatures more likely on the warm side for most of it.

June I still expect to be warmer, sunnier and drier than normal.

The rest of summer? Hmmm. Mixed.

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