Thursday 5th January 2023

Unsettled for the next week, but maybe drier after.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

This evening will be cloudy with the odd splash of light rain, with a short band of heavyish rain crossing a little after midnight, clear skies following. 11’C during the cloud and rain, but getting down to around 6’C once it clears.

Friday starts sunny. High cloud will spread across from the west, and gradually it will become hazier. Some cloudier spells in the afternoon with the odd scattered shower. Reaching around 11’C with the wind picking up later. Bits of showery rain in the evening and overnight, though the main band of rain staying to our west until around dawn, windy, 11’C.

By Saturday we have a huge area of low pressure to the west of Scotland – it cannot make quick progress due to a block of high pressure over Scandinavia/Russia – but it will have the force to overcome the block.

Saturday morning sees rain and strong winds, clearing around midday or early afternoon. Sunny spells and scattered heavy, blustery showers will follow – remaining windy but less so than during the morning, and reaching around 10’C. Remaining windy overnight, with variable cloud, the odd shower blowing through also. Down to around 6’C.

Sunday continues in the same theme. Some sunny spells, but plenty of cloud and plenty of showers – some heavy, perhaps with hail and/or thunder, even a small chance of something wintry mixed in if you get a really potent shower. Around 8’C. The odd shower possible overnight, but mostly a case of clear spells, and chilly, down to around 3’C.

Monday sees low pressure drift away, leaving us in cooler air, with sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and still the odd shower possible, but they should be fairly light if you catch one. 7’C and still quite windy. Clear skies and chilly overnight – cloud thickening later.

Tuesday may start bright, but the next band of rain will swiftly arrive, with a good 6 or so hours of rain, some heavy. Chilly to start but 12’C by late afternoon – fairly windy once more. Further showers likely to follow either in the evening or overnight.

Wednesday looks like sunny spells and blustery showers, possibly heavy showers. Windy and around 8’C or so.

Probably another spell of rain on Thursday or Friday, though by this time I’ve lost confidence over how low pressure systems develop and when/where they track. An outside chance of something wintry mixed in, and I do mean outside chance.

From there the chance of dry spells increases – high pressure should be building close to or over the UK. No more details other than that – certainly could be on the cold side, with overnight frost/fog, though nothing unusually cold is expected.

Dry weather should dominate for at least 7-10 days, though still the odd band of rain will remain possible.

February still looks like it will be a wet month, at least for a good chunk, and more likely so for the first half – and this wet spell may start by the end of January.

Still fairly hopeful for spring, with high pressure close at times, there should be some decent sunny, warm weather at times.

Of course, we still need to get through January before this is any more than a guide – should a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event occur, then all bets are off for February and onwards. There is a warming event currently in the stratosphere, but it isn’t sudden, it will only move the stratospheric vortex and maybe weaken it a bit – but the projected move of the vortex, to my understanding (it is complex stuff that I only vaguely follow), just means a wet and windy February is more likely.

Weakening the vortex does mean that a second warming event, if one happens, may be more likely to succeed as an SSW. But a second warming event wouldn’t happen for 2-3 weeks from now at the earliest. One to watch, but at the moment, I’d assume no Beast From The East (or similar) for February.

Just a reminder – the stratosphere is the atmospheric layer above where we reside which is the troposphere – so these are events that happen miles above us! Yet still affect our weather down here – significantly.

I wish you a chilled weekend.

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