Thursday 5th August 2021

More heavy showers to come this weekend…but some warm sunshine on some days next week.

Thanks to Jonathan for the photograph.

This evening will remain cloudy with further showers, and overnight will be fairly cloudy, a few clear spells and also a few scattered showers in the wind. Mild at 14’C.

Friday sees low pressure sat over the north of Britain, and it isn’t really going anywhere for a few days.

Sunny spells and heavy showers is the theme again, showers possible from dawn but more likely in the afternoon – and there could be quite a cluster of heavy/very heavy showers, thunder possible too. More cloud than sun, but there will be some sunny spells. Reaching around 21’C and quite windy. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C – a small chance of some heavy showers towards sunrise.

Saturday will see frequent heavy showers. Possible, if not probable from dawn, they could be very heavy with thunder. A small chance of hail and gusty winds. A bit of sunshine at times, but overall more cloud than sun – you may even get a 2-3 hour slot with no showers depending on how they form. 20’C at best and still notably breezy. Showers still in the evening – probably dry overnight though still a chance of a stray shower, some clear spells, down to around 14’C.

Lower chances of showers for Sunday as our low pressure system drifts north, but still around a 70% chance of catching at least a couple. But drier for longer, a bit more sunshine and around 20’C. A risk of a cluster of heavy showers for around early evening – but an uncertain development at this stage. Quite cloudy overnight, a risk of a shower or two still.

Monday starts to see the Azores High push in from the south-west. It remains uncertain as to whether this can be a longer term change or it is just a blip in the previous pattern – I was more semi-confident when I last wrote that it might be a pattern change – I’m more doubtful now, the background signals have gone into reverse.

We’ll see. Anyway…a bit of an improvement for Monday. Some reasonable sunny spells, still plenty of cloud around and a 40% chance of a heavy shower. Temperatures reaching around 21’C or so. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Tuesday could be dry. I cannot totally rule out a light shower and there will be plenty of cloud still – likely more cloud than sun overall. Feeling warmer, around 23’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday likely starts dry and bright/sunny. However, weather systems to our north (the jetstream will have finally located back north where it should be in summer) will likely bring a weather front down at some point in the day/night, bringing some patchy rain. Timing is uncertain at this stage, so if it doesn’t arrive until evening/overnight then maybe 24’C is ours.

Thursday looks dry, warm with some sunny spells – and also some cloud around, but hopefully more sunshine than cloud overall. Around 23’C.

Friday becomes more uncertain – and depends on how close to our north low pressure is. It will probably be far enough north for us to stay dry, but questions remain on sunshine amounts and temperatures, though more likely warm/very warm.

Next weekend is highly uncertain. It could easily end up hot and sunny – yet it could easily end up cool and wet. Or anything in between.

Looking any further ahead of that is unsurprisingly uncertain. I’m still leaning towards this being a pattern change, and there being more warm/hot sunshine than we’ve seen recently – but it being quite changeable, so some variation in temperatures and also some short unsettled spells too. Bit of a mix, but an improved one.

Tentative signs of something more settled, and perhaps hot, either for roughly around the end of August or beginning of September.

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