Have you ever thought, “what I really need is a weather forecaster that tells me what the weather is doing now, but cannot tell me what it will do later”?

Well, good morning. It is raining. It will continue to rain for much of the time until around 2pm, when it will become drier. Most of the rain rather moderate in intensity but a few heavy burst possible. Chilly at 6’C.

After the main rain clears, there will still be occasional showers possible, but it should be dry for most of the time.

Overnight temperatures fall but it remains cloudy. A little feature in the English Channel to our south, as part of a fairly large low pressure trough, will spread north. The track is uncertain.

It could very easily remain to our east and we stay dry, maybe it will be over London or maybe even further east, say Kent and spreading up into East Anglia. If so, that’s easy to forecast – dry, cloudy and cold. Most weather models do forecast that way, but this is a tricky situation for the models – and hence forecasters, to handle. I’d say this is around a 70% chance.

However it may track this far west, and as the night goes on, it could turn to sleet or wet snow – and likewise this could continue into tomorrow. I’d say a 20% chance of seeing snow fall overnight or tomorrow.

So two difficult questions – what track will this little feature take tonight and will it turn to snow. I hope I’ll be able to answer the first question in the full forecast tonight, though the second could remain impossible to answer. Interesting day of model watching ahead!