Thursday 30th September 2021

Well, it is definitely autumnal – and there is a wet and windy weekend to come.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

Tonight will be cloudy with occasional bits of rain – mild and windy at around 15’C.

Friday sees low pressure in charge to our north.

It will start cloudy with bits and pieces of light rain, followed by around 2 hours of heavier rain shortly after dawn, say 8am onwards approximately. Sunny spells will follow, the odd scattered shower at first but becoming mostly sunny for much of the afternoon. 16’C and winds lessening. Clear skies at first overnight, down to around 8’C, but cloud thickening as the night goes on.

You may remember me talking about the secondary low expected for either Saturday or Sunday – a low that develops south of the main low pressure system, and deepening rapidly.

This will arrive on Saturday morning, bringing rain – often heavy, from around mid/late morning onwards. It looks like the core of the low will be a little further south-east of us, say over Kent where winds will be strong enough for some damage/disruption – though for us gusts of 40-45mph more likely the maximum, during the afternoon and evening.

The rain will clear around late afternoon/early evening. 13’C for most of the day though a tad milder in the evening. There is a chance of a further spell of rain moving up from the south-west overnight – this is uncertain, and may track further east – really kind of 50/50 scenario at the moment, maybe 40/60 in favour of staying dry.

Sunday looks kind of reasonable. Sunny spells, fair weather cloud, around a 40% chance of a shower or two – certainly an improvement from Saturday. Around 16’C and quite windy. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 10’C.

Monday will be similar to Sunday, though a greater chance of showers – say around a 70% chance of a couple of showers, probably on the heavy side too. Some sunny spells and temperatures around 16’C, breezy. Heavy rain and strong winds likely overnight from another secondary low.

Tuesday sees this secondary low over us or close by – somewhere between north France and north England will likely see gales or severe gales depending on the exact track, but that won’t be known until closer to the time.

Also, Hurricane Sam to the east of America will be determining our weather for later in the week – more on that later.

Tuesday will be unsettled with either heavy rain or heavy showers – depending on the track/timing of this secondary low. Around 14’C.

What happens then depends on Hurricane Sam and how he/she interacts with the jetstream.

The slightly more likely outcome is that it interacts with the jetstream and pushes it north of us, allowing high pressure to build with some lovely October tropical air for us – and hopefully some warm sunshine.

The slightly less likely outcome is that it has minimal or no interaction with the jetstream, temperatures remain a little low and our weather is changeable – some sunshine, but also some bands of rain – less than the current pattern though.

Details for Wednesday onwards are therefore uncertain, though in either scenario some rain/showers looks likely at some point on Wednesday and/or Thursday – though in the warmer scenario you’d be noticing the warmth by Thursday.

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