Thursday 30th November 2023

A cold start to winter but gradually, if erratically, becoming milder – and at least somewhat wetter. There are still some small chances of snow to contend with, though more likely it will be all rain.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure to our north-west, with the jetstream fairly fragmented, but a notable streak to our south, with a low pressure system which wasn’t far away from bringing us some snow today – 50 miles further north and we probably would have had at least some light snow.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, down to around -2’C with a frost. Fog forming in places towards dawn.

Friday starts sunny in places, but foggy in other places. Those with the fog may find it takes quite some time to clear – but otherwise it will be a mostly sunny day, with a bit of cloud and a small chance of a wintry shower. Cold, 4’C at best. Clear skies overnight for a while but fog forming widely. Down to around -4’C – should you have a sheltered location and there is no fog, then it could easily be a fair bit lower.

Saturday starts foggy for most, and will likely take at least lunchtime for the fog/low cloud to lift – once it does (assuming it does in your location) then there will be sunny spells. Cold, 3’C at best – though if the fog/low cloud doesn’t clear then maybe no higher than 0’C. In the evening/overnight a little feature looks like bringing some precipitation for a couple of hours, across the south of England. More likely rain or a wintry mix – but possible it falls as snow and settles. One to watch – if I have time, I’ll update nearer the time but my life is kinda hectic right now, so do check with the Met Office nearer the time if interested! Though it could just be one of those too marginal situations to call even a few hours in advance.

Not especially high confidence for Sunday, but broadly speaking cloudy and cold is the more likely outcome, with a small chance of some showery rain. Around 3’C. Rain spreading up from the south-west overnight – as it hits the cold air there’s a chance that there could be some form of wintry mix to start, but more likely it is rain. Around 3’C overnight.

We start next week with colder air still in place, but low pressure trying to push in from the south-west.

Outbreaks of what should be rain on Monday – some uncertainty on details though generally quite patchy light/moderate rain is more likely, and probably quite windy. Temperatures will depend on how far north the low pressure system gets, somewhere between 3’C and 7’C.

And that’s about as far as I can go right now.

Next week will be a battle between an irrepressible force and an immovable block – the former being a resurgent Atlantic with a much stronger jetstream, the latter being the high pressure blocking to our north-east.

It should become at least a bit milder for a while though whether it will be wet is uncertain – it’s possible that Monday’s low gets stuck and slowly fades over the days after, and other low pressure systems cannot quite make it due to the block to the north-east.

On the flip side, it is possible that we do end up in a succession of low pressure systems and have a wet week.

But with the high pressure block lurking to our north-east, and some really cold air over Scandinavia – it’s plausible that at some point the cold air could make another attempt to head our way.

An interesting week ahead.

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