Thursday 30th April 2020

Well we managed one day of April showers in April – further showers in the forecast but certainly less so than the last few days.

Thanks to Paula for the photograph.

So we start with low pressure over the UK.

Blue denotes lower pressure on this chart – not colder!

The main bulk of showers have cleared east, still a small chance of catching one this evening, and a very small chance of a passing shower overnight – otherwise variable cloud and down to around 6’C.

Friday sees further showers. Less of them than today, no guarantee of catching one but most will catch at least a couple. Again they could be heavy with thunder, perhaps hail mixed in. There will also be more in the way of sunny spells, and we should get to around 15’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 5’C.

Saturday starts sunny. Cloud will bubble up during the morning – a bit of uncertainty as to how much, potentially rather overcast but still kinda bright. One or two scattered light showers. Increasing amounts of sunshine later in the day. 16’C or so. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 5’C.

Sunday starts with sunny spells. Cloud gradually thickening during the afternoon but remaining bright with hazy sunshine at times. Feeling warmer, 18’C. Fairly cloudy overnight in a light southerly breeze, 8’C or so.

You may remember me talking about the expected Spanish Plume during the last forecast. By Monday, temperatures will have shot up in Spain itself, yet high pressure building over Scotland looks like it will scupper the heat from making it here.

The oranges denote higher pressure – not higher temperatures!

So Monday will see high pressure building. Some sunny spells but also some cloud likely, again more likely to be rather cloudy during the middle portion of the day. Reaching somewhere between 16’C and 18’C and a very small chance of a light shower. It should be dry overnight, down to around 6’C.

Tuesday is quite uncertain, and will depend on how the attempted Spanish plume and build of high pressure to our north develop. The somewhat more likely outcome is sunny spells, around 16’C with scattered showers. Could instead be rather wet with rain moving up from the south-west – or indeed warmer with sunny spells.

Wednesday is a bit more nailed down – the most likely outcome sees high pressure to our north-east, low pressure quite far to our west. Sunny spells and around 18’C – give or take a couple.

Thursday and Friday probably stay under the influence of high pressure, with sunny spells and temperatures back to around 20’C. A small chance of a heavy shower. Note I am not especially confident about this outcome.

I’m not going to attempt forecasting next weekend yet as it is very much in the balance!

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