Thursday 2nd September 2021

Me again. Fancy a taste of summer?

There’s been a pretty sudden change in modelling this week, caused mostly by Hurricane Ida.

When I wrote on Monday, I was expecting a low pressure trough to cross England Sunday/Monday, however the remnants of Hurricane Ida to the north-east of USA are going to affect the jetstream sufficiently so that the aforementioned low pressure trough gets cut off to our west – which then pumps up hot air from the south.

I often say that the tracks of hurricanes can affect our expected weather patterns, and this is a good example. And a beneficial example if you want some hot sunshine.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph…from a few weeks ago.

Tonight will be rather cloudy, though some clear spells at times. Down to around 13’C.

Friday will be rather cloudy, more so in the morning and around lunchtime, but there will be more sunny spells than of late – some in the morning, more as the afternoon goes on. 22’C – and yes, we’ve finally lost the north-easterly breeze. Some clear spells, some cloudy spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Saturday morning will be mostly cloudy. As the afternoon goes on there will be some sunny spells, likely ending mostly sunny. Around 21’C. Variable cloud overnight, around 14’C.

By Sunday we have high pressure to out east, low pressure to our west, and we start to see the much warmer air drift up from the south.

There will be cloud, overall probably more cloud than sunshine, but there will be sunny spells – particularly as the afternoon goes on. It will feel warmer, around 23’C, but if sunshine amounts surprise then maybe 25’C. A very small chance of an afternoon shower. Clear spells overnight, though low cloud and perhaps fog forming by dawn in a few places, around 15’C.

Monday is a bit uncertain in terms of cloud amounts, more likely to be cloudy in the morning with that small chance of early fog. It should become more widely sunny from some point, say late morning onwards, though still some fair weather cloud around and reaching around 26’C.. There is a small-moderate chance that cloud hangs on until say mid-afternoon, which would mean temperatures closer to 23’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 16’C.

There is still some uncertainty on cloud amounts for Tuesday, possible rather cloudy at times, but the more likely outcome is that it will be mostly sunny. Assuming so, then a rather hot 28’C should be reached. I happen to have the day off work too! Yes, that is a co-incidence this time. Clear spells overnight, down to around 16’C.

Wednesday should still be hot and sunny, though the afore-mentioned low pressure trough will be edging closer.

Good spells of fairly hot sunshine are probable in the morning, possible in the afternoon – though some heavy, possibly thundery showers are likely either during the afternoon or evening – well, perhaps not until overnight. Reaching roughly around 27’C. Showers or thunderstorms possible overnight.

By Thursday uncertainty is quite high, as it will depend on positioning of the low pressure trough.

Likely the heat will have gone, but probable that it will still be warm or very warm. Broadly something like sunny spells and showers, though sunshine amounts and shower frequency/potency uncertain.

Very low confidence for next weekend, but the slightly more likely outcome is warmish and fair – some sunshine, some cloud, the odd shower.


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