Well, I’ve been putting off this forecast all day thinking “one more set of model runs” will help. I’m just about there in terms of knowing when it should rain, though there remains uncertainty. Yeah, there is rain on the way.

It’s a fairly complex convective situation, with the low pressure that was to the west of Spain/Portugal, that I’ve mentioned in the previous forecasts, getting close to the south of the UK, and it will bring heavy rain and/or heavy showers – possibly thunderstorms – later in the weekend.

Until then, not too shabby.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

This evening stays bright with some high/mid level cloud. Some cloud remaining overnight but fairly clear, down to around 9’C.

Friday starts reasonably sunny. There will be sunny spells throughout the day but also a fair amount of mid-level cloud. A very small chance of an afternoon shower, but they should remain to our west. Warm, 22’C or so. Cloud tending to increase overnight – a small (though fairly uncertain) chance of a shower later in the night, down to around 11’C.

Saturday sees high pressure over the north of the UK – with the convective low over France.

Saturday is uncertain! There will likely be hazy sunshine quite often during the day – there is a chance of a band of showers spreading north in the morning, though I’m suspecting that they’ll fade before they get here. The afternoon only has a low chance of showers, and there should be more in the way of sunshine. Warm, around 20’C – give or take. During the evening or more likely overnight, some heavy, showery rain, possibly torrential, possibly with thunderstorms, will move up from the south. Details are uncertain at this stage, and probably will be until Saturday itself.

Sunday may start with thundery downpours – or they may have already moved north. Either way, they will move north. We’ll likely be left with a lot of cloud, but it’s possible that the sun may come out by late afternoon. 16’C if it stays cloudy, 20’C with some late afternoon sunshine. However – any sunshine could easily trigger some more heavy showers.

I stress again the uncertain for both Saturday and Sunday – details could turn out quite different from the more likely outcome above – but at some point, there will be heavy rain or heavy showers, be it day or night.

Monday looks fairly cloudy with some showers.

Tuesday should see things start to improve. Still a few showers around but more in the way of sunny spells, and temperatures on the up, say 21’C or so.

Wednesday starts sunny, but will become increasingly hazy as a weather front tries to push in from the west – some patchy rain possible late in the day or into the evening, though amounts limited. Warm, around 21’C.

Thursday is about as far as I can go with any reasonable level of confidence, and even then I’m not convinced, but the more likely outcome is sunny spells and only a small chance of a shower. Likely warm or very warm.

From there, probably quite variable conditions – some dry, sunny days, some wet or showery days – often warmer than normal.

You might get updates on Saturday/Sunday morning, especially if anything is notably different from above…I’m on call with work so it isn’t like I’ve got too much of a social life this weekend!

Enjoy the bank holiday and celebrations.