Mostly fine and warm, though an increasing chance of some showers from Sunday onwards.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

So we are still in pretty much the same general pattern as we have been in for a while now, low pressure to the north of the country, ridges of high pressure across the south, keeping us mostly settled.

Thursday starts sunny. Some fair-weather cloud will bubble up through the lunchtime period, and some high cloud at times, but broadly it will be a pretty sunny day. Warm, 22’C and a bit of a breeze. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Friday sees an area of high cloud move up from the south, associated with a thundery low over France, but otherwise it will be a pleasant day with hazy sunshine, and some fair-weather cloud too. A shade warmer, 23’C, maybe 24’C. On the cloudier side overnight, with a small chance of a shower drifting up from France. Around 14’C.

Saturday looks fairly cloudy but fairly warm, as the cloudy remnants of France’s thundery low drift north – most likely we’ll stay dry but a shower not impossible. Some hazy sunshine at times still likely, and perhaps some sunny spells late in the day. Around 22’C. On the cloudy and warm side overnight, around 15’C or so – an outside chance of importing a thunderstorm, but unlikely.

Complexity is increasing by Sunday – we have high pressure in charge to our north-east, trying to drag hot air in from the east, but also weather fronts trying to approach from the west, and a thundery low still hanging around over France.

Details for Sunday are uncertain. Broadly speaking, there should be some good sunny spells, though the sunshine and warmth will likely trigger showers somewhere over England – so a 30-40% chance of some thundery downpours developing during the afternoon/evening. Also a chance of a morning thundery shower, and some more cloud associated with it – though this aspect less likely and less certain. Likely humid and hot, say around 27’C or so, but that does depend on a reasonable amount of sunshine – and could easily be a couple of degrees either side.

Don’t be too surprised if it doesn’t quite pan out exactly like this – if you have plans then do check other weather forecasts nearer the time.

Overnight likely on the cloudy and warm side, showers possible, and around 16’C.

Again Monday is uncertain on details, but broadly speaking a weather front most likely pushes across from the west at some point during the day – hazy sunshine and very warm before it does, some rain as it crosses. Somewhat fresher after. Timing uncertain. Assuming the weather front arrives middle of the day, then reaching around 24’C – early in the day, then 21’C, late in the day then 26’C.

More likely Tuesday and Wednesday see temperatures around normal, say 20’C or so, with sunny spells and scattered showers. Not especially high confidence.

The more likely outcome for late next week and into next weekend sees high pressure building close to the UK, so we should see more in the way of sunshine and warmth, perhaps becoming very warm/quite hot. However, there are also signs of thundery lows over the near continent which could at times bring some thunderstorms, or general heavy rain our way over this period. Next weekend could easily be hot and sunny, but instead it could easily pour down with rain all weekend. Or some mixture of the two – it is quite finely balanced right now!

Enjoy your weekend – looking hot and sunny for me in Prague, though perhaps too hot for walking around all day. Might have to check out a bar or three, I guess. Next forecast should be on Tuesday, all being well.