Thursday 29th April 2021

Cool and showery for a few days. Followed by more general rain at times next week. Well…some of you wanted some rain.

Thanks to Jonathan for the photograph.

Scattered showers remain possible this evening and into the first part of the night, clear spells developing with temperatures down to around 1’C – a frost in sheltered spots.

Friday starts with sunny spells and some cloud. Cloud will bubble up with showers breaking out – around a 70% chance of catching one or more, some will be heavy. 13’C and still on the cool side. Clear skies developing overnight, a small chance of fog by dawn, down to around 2’C with a frost in sheltered spots.

For Saturday we are in a “no overall control” situation.

Any early fog will quickly clear to sunny spells and fair weather cloud. Showers will break out again, around a 70% chance of catching one or more, again they could be heavy. A slight suggestion of a cluster of showers for late afternoon/early evening – but showers possible any time after mid-morning. 13’C, maybe 14’C. Showers will fade after early evening, skies clear – down to around 3’C. A chance of fog in places by dawn.

Sunday is more of the same. Perhaps a tad more sunshine and temperatures up to around 14’C, but there will be plenty of showers around again, some heavy. Skies clearing at first overnight, though high/medium cloud developing in the second half. Down to around 4’C.

Bank Holiday Monday starts bright with hazy sunshine. Cloud will gradually thicken with some outbreaks of rain in the afternoon. Becoming windy, 13’C. Strong winds and heavy rain in the evening – uncertain overnight as to whether the rain clears south, or hangs around.

Tuesday tentatively looks OK – though I’m far from confident. Sunny spells, some cloud, a small chance of a shower or two, but nothing especially of note. Around 14’C but a cool breeze…again. Clear skies overnight, down to around 4’C.

Wednesday probably similar, some sunny spells, some cloud, one or two scattered showers. Around 13’C. A chance of rain arriving later in the day – uncertain on timescale for this.

From Thursday onwards the main question will be regarding the track of the jetstream – whatever it does, there will be rain at some point…or points.

If it is a bit further south, say over northern France then Thursday and into next weekend will be wet/very wet at times and cold when wet. I wouldn’t completely rule out wintry precipitation mixed in.

If it is a bit further north, say over the Midlands, then it will still be wet/very warm at times, but also quite warm. This evolution also includes a smaller chance of low pressure stalling to our west and dragging up very warm air by Saturday/Sunday. Feasibly by Sunday – maximum temperatures could be anywhere between a cold 7’C, to a very warm 25’C.

So there is this window of opportunity for some warmer weather from next weekend – but it isn’t the most likely solution. I’d suggest something changeable is the more likely outcome for the second week of May, though that should include a couple of pleasant days – along with some showers/rain other days.

I was originally expecting May to be broadly warm, sunny and dry. Unless this window of opportunity brings a warm spell, I’d suggest that we will be waiting until the second half of May for more consistent, warm, sunny weather. You know – when the pubs/restaurants are open indoors.

Looking further ahead, I expect June to be the best part of the summer – often warm/hot, some good sunny days but also a few showery spells too – probably some thunderstorms. Currently there is a fairly strong signal for high pressure to our south-east during June (signal actually appears late May) which is where you want it, if you want it very warm or hot. Granted there was a strong signal for high pressure over the UK in May, until a couple of weeks ago. So take it with the usual pinch of salt.

July and August still look more mixed. Some short hot spells likely – also some more unsettled spells too.

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