Thursday 28th January 2021

And on goes the battle between cold and mild.

Thanks to Milica for the photograph from last weekend – yes I’m using another snowy photograph. And indeed, there is another chance of snow this weekend – though much more marginal than it was last Sunday.

Tonight starts cloudy and mild, a band of rain – some heavy, will cross roughly between 9pm and midnight. Quite windy, around 11’C.

Friday morning sees a cluster of showers pass through for a couple of hours, it will brighten up afterwards – but always more cloud than sunshine, and a stray shower possible. Mild, 11’C. Overnight, a very weak weather front tries to push down from the north, attempting to bring colder air and a spot of rain – but is rebuffed by mild re-enforcements from the south-west, which will bring more persistent and heavy rain from around 3am, give or take. Around 6’C.

Saturday starts wet with this weather front over the south of England – it is trying to move north but gets stuck as the cold air to the north moves down. And during this process, it will turn to sleet and possibly snow at times.

It is another very marginal call, if pushed then I’d see it is more likely we’d see some snow falling, but a general wintry mix – some rain, some sleet and some snow. There’s a risk of small accumulations, but likewise on the flip side it could just be mostly rain. Around 3’C. The band of rain/sleet/snow will weaken as the afternoon goes on and sink back south. Cold and frosty overnight, ice possible, down to around -2’C.

Sunday is an even more impossible call. It should start cold with hazy sunshine – but the next low pressure system will be attempting to advance.

I’m not yet sure on the track – very feasible it stays to our south, perhaps the slightly more likely outcome and we’ll just be cloudy and cold, around 4’C.

However there is a fair chance that it will make inroads and bring some sleet or snow – though if it does, the more likely outcome is that it would turn to rain.

But really, an impossible call right now.

Monday’s weather depends on what happened on Sunday, however the slightly more likely outcome is something chilly or cold, fairly cloudy and fairly dry.

You can see just how close the mild and cold air is to each other – and why this is so difficult to call!

Tuesday should see the milder air win out once more, with a band of rain – heavy at times, crossing the UK, perhaps briefly preceded by sleet or snow. Followed by sunshine and showers. Around 11’C – assuming the mild air has won…I don’t have full confidence at all.

Wednesday most likely mild, with some showers. Around 10’C.

At some point I’d expect much colder air to spread back from the north or east – perhaps as early as Thursday, but more likely from Saturday or Sunday. More likely cold and dry, wintry showers possible but more of a stress on dry.

Often cold during February, snow will remain very possible – I’d be surprised if it didn’t snow again this winter. Still uncertain as to whether we’ll get a more lengthy cold/very cold spell, or continue with a similar pattern as to now, often cold but with milder and wet interludes – and with sleet/snow on the boundary of the two air masses.

Expect lots more uncertainty. Most interesting winter for forecasting for a while – in my opinion since 2013. You could argue 2018 as that was a classic SSW response, bring the Beast From The East – but that didn’t happen until the end of winter.

Have a acceptable weekend.

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