Thursday 26th January 2023

High pressure remains close by, so mostly dry bar weak weather fronts, temperatures around normal.

Pretty uneventful really.

I’ve had a pleasing influx of photographs recently – thanks to Clare for this one – and apologies if I haven’t thanked everyone, I do look at them all and try to use the most fitting for the coming forecast.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, down to around 2’C – maybe a spot of light rain.

High pressure in control for Friday, though situated to our west.

A cloudy start but we will see increasing amounts of sunny spells as the day goes on. Around 7’C in a light breeze. Clear spells and frosty overnight, down to around -2’C. Fog possible.

Saturday may start foggy or with low cloud – this taking a while to clear though sunny spells will follow, with variable amounts of cloud. Around 5’C. Clear spells at first, down to around 0’C with a frost forming in places – but cloud thickening in the second half of the night as a weak weather front spreads down from the north, bringing a little patchy light rain.

Sunday looks mostly cloudy though a tad milder at around 8’C. A few sunny breaks possible, the odd spot of light rain also possible – and the wind picking up a bit later. Cloudy overnight as another weak weather front spreads down, giving a little patchy light rain at times, down to around 4’C and breezy.

Monday starts fairly cloudy. It will be a day of generally increasing sunny spells. Reaching around 8’C though a chilly northerly (ish) breeze. Clear spells at first overnight, cloud tending to thicken later in the night with a breeze. 50/50 call as to whether there is a touch of frost, down to around 1’C.

Suggestions of another weak weather front sinking south during Tuesday, probably in the morning, bringing cloud and some patchy light rain – milder too, around 10’C, maybe 11’C. Sunny spells to follow. Variable cloud and breezy overnight, probably no frost, down to around 3’C.

Wednesday looks more like a north-westerly flow – high pressure still very much in control to our south-west.

Sunny spells probable, maybe a shower or two in the flow, and fairly windy. Around 8’C, give or take.

Current suggestions for Thursday and Friday, are that high pressure moves over the UK – and the source of air may well be from Africa, albeit having travelled over the Atlantic Ocean around the high pressure block – so mildish though nothing exceptional, say 9’C to 11’C. Uncertain on cloud/sunshine amounts at this stage. Frost/fog possible, though depending on exact positioning of the high pressure.

Likely still dry and quite mild next weekend.

Not sure where we go from here. My previous assumption was that February would become more unsettled though that is a bit more up in the air than it was.

There is a notable warming event in the stratosphere but I’m not expecting it to have much or any impact down here, at least for our area of the world – but cannot yet rule out it being an SSW with cold weather impacts, maybe 5-10% chance tops.

Also the MJO (pattern of thunderstorms in the Indian Ocean), I had thought was conducive to a wet and windy spell followed by a chance of a cold spell late February – but perhaps the strength means the teleconnections are the other way around? I tend to only take limited notice of the MJO as a forecasting tool, but it seems to have validated more this winter, at least from my limited understanding.

So, erm, not sure for the rest of February. Give me a few more days and a fair more model runs!

I guess for the week or so after next weekend (w/c 6th February) I could summarise my thoughts as unsettled or somewhat unsettled still the slight favourite, mildish and dry the slightly less likely outcome – cold with chances of wintry showers much less likely, but maybe a 5-10% chance.

Have a pleasant weekend.

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