Thursday 25th June 2020

You have one more bonus hot day, though not as hot as today where we reached a mafting 31.2’C. And there are chances of thunderstorms as the breakdown to a week or so of definitely not summer begins.

Thanks to Lynne for the photograph. And to my new wife, Lola, also known as AEG ChillFlex Pro AXP26U338CW Air Conditioning Unit. She’s so chilled out, I’m totally in love. Why didn’t I buy one years ago?

So forecasting thundery breakdowns is always a total nightmare, and this is no different. It will be warm tonight, perhaps not getting below 20’C.

Overnight is only a small chance at best, maybe 10% chance of one or two isolated thunderstorms – perhaps fairly frequent lightning, some heavy rain also. Between roughly 3am and 7am.

Friday morning starts with a chance of thundery showers, which could organise into an hour or so of heavy rain – likewise it could stay dry. The sun should come out, if it hasn’t already, to bring some hot sunshine from 9am onwards, give or take. Then in the period roughly midday to 3pm, maybe 4pm, further scattered thunderstorms will break out and drift north. I’d suggest around a 35% chance of catching one, torrential rain likely if so, frequent lightning possible and a small chance of largish hail.

Hot again, 30’C should be squeezed though you’ll notice it become fresher in the evening. More in the way of cloud overnight and some heavy showers pushing through in the early hours – could be some lightning and some very heavy downpours mixed in. Down to around 16’C.

For Saturday we have low pressure in charge to the west of Scotland.

Saturday starts with frequent heavy showers, could be some thunder mixed in and some very heavy downpours. Showers becoming fewer in the afternoon and less likely to be heavy. Some sunny spells also. Around 21’C and windy. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 12’C.

Sunday sees a bit more in the way of sunshine, though plenty of fair weather cloud and some showers also, nothing especially heavy likely but I cannot rule it out. Around 20’C and breezy. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Monday is a little bit uncertain as it will depend on the exact position of the low pressure – more likely we are away from the main area of showers and have a mostly dry day, with some limited sunshine though plenty of cloud, small chance of a shower. Around 19’C.

Tuesday sees low pressure over Scandinavia and a relatively cool flow.

There is a bit of uncertainty as there may be a secondary low pressure tracking along the English Channel which could bring a spell of wet weather either Monday night or during Tuesday. I rate this outcome around a 30% chance as it stands.

Otherwise, plenty of cloud, some sunny spells and some showers – around 20’C.

Wednesday looks like we will be in a zone of nothingness, though I’m not especially confident. Quite a bit of cloud, some sunny spells, a small chance of a shower. Around 21’C.

Low confidence again for Thursday, but probably something broadly fair, some sunshine, some cloud, a small chance of a heavy shower, around 22’C.

For Friday and into beer garden weekend the most likely outcome is…yes, heavy showers or longer spells of rain. Not certain but the most likely outcome, with the jetstream meandering south towards the UK again.

More likely staying changeable until the middle of July – some fine, warm days, but some showery or even outright wet days too. Temperatures around average. It should warm up for the second half of July, with further very warm or hot sunshine at times.

If there are any changes to the thunderstorm outlook when the morning models are released, I’ll let you know. Otherwise have a good weekend.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.