Thursday 25th August 2022

It was nice to get some proper rain, wasn’t it? But that’s it for now, no heatwave conditions but plenty of fair and warm/very warm conditions ahead.

Thanks to Jessica for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, at least once the remnants of the cloud from the weather front has cleared. A small chance of a little fog in places before dawn, down to around 13’C.

Friday sees the Azores High trying to build once again…though not the strongest build ever. Thankfully (for those of us who want fine weather), the Atlantic is still very weak, so even a weak build of high pressure can keep out the weaker lows.

Sunny to start the day, cloud will bubble up from around late morning, and the lunchtime period into early afternoon looks rather cloudy – a bit of brightness. Sunshine amounts should increase later in the afternoon once more. Warm, 23’C or so. Some cloud overnight, perhaps a shower too, 15’C.

Saturday sees sunny spells and a reasonable amount of cloud too. A few scattered showers, could be on the sharp side, more likely in the morning or early afternoon – around a 40% chance of catching one or two. Warm, around 23’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday starts sunny. Fair weather cloud bubbling up from around lunchtime, and also some high cloud to make the remaining sunny spells hazy. A very small chance of an innocuous shower, but most likely staying dry. Warm, around 23’C with a bit of an easterly breeze. High cloud overnight, down to around 14’C.

Bank Holiday Monday starts with sunny spells, though likely hazy at times. Quite a bit of cloud likely to blow in from the North Sea from late morning onwards, likely more cloud than sunshine but still a bit of sunshine. Temperatures down a notch, 21’C, maybe 22’C. Fairly clear skies overnight and down to around 13’C.

Tuesday continues in the same fashion, quite a lot of cloud blowing in from the North Sea, but some sunny spells. Around 21’C. There is a small chance that low pressure over France may be far north enough for a heavy shower, but no more than a 10% chance right now. Probably quite cloudy overnight and down to around 13’C ish.

Wednesday is probably on the cloudy side, though uncertain – temperatures around 20’C.

This is probably about as far as I can go with any reasonable confidence. The afore-mentioned low pressure system over France may by Thursday/Friday next week be edging close enough to us to increase shower chance and also increase temperatures – but low confidence.

Very low confidence for next weekend. A very warm/quite hot solution is somewhat more likely than other temperature regimes, and dry is slightly more likely than showery. Otherwise anything goes really.

A trend towards something more unsettled is still the somewhat more likely outcome after next weekend, though a long way from guaranteed. Though temperatures likely to remain above normal, mostly.

Interestingly there has been no hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year – and a busier than normal season was expected. Hurricanes can shift the expected weather patterns, especially in August and September, so uncertainty is often higher than normal.

But why so quiet this year? My assumption is the amount of sand drifting across from Africa – and I wonder if this has also stopped low pressure formation in Europe? As we’ve had some Saharan sand episodes during the summer. Just conjecture…not something I’ve looked into or have time to. Hopefully someone will do it for me!

Enjoy the bank holiday.

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