Thursday 24th September 2020

A chilly weekend ahead and becoming much more unsettled next week as the jetstream fires up. At least the weather seems to sum up the national mood a bit better than sunshine right now!

Thanks to Chickena for the photograph.

Tonight will be rather cloudy with the odd scattered shower, more likely towards dawn. Some clear spells also, down to around 7’C.

For Friday we have low pressure close to our east, bringing a chilly northerly flow – though a ridge of high pressure waiting out west.

It will start cloudy, perhaps a bit of showery rain. This gradually clears east to be replaced with increasing amounts of sunshine. Feeling rather cold in a strong northerly wind, 14’C. Clear skies overnight and that strong northerly wind continuing, down to around 6’C. Proper coats!

Saturday starts sunny but notably chilly. It looks like cloud will spread down from the north during the afternoon with a bit of showery rain. 13’C at a push and the northerly wind continuing – though not as strong as Friday. Some clear spells at first, but cloud tending to thicken from the east later in the night, perhaps bringing a bit of rain too, down to around 8’C.

Sunday is uncertain. The same low pressure from Thursday still very close to our east – the huge area of high pressure over Russia blocking its progress.

I think a mostly cloudy day is likely, but the uncertainty comes from exactly what the low pressure to our east does – latest models suggest that it tracks back west towards us and brings a spell of rain. Yet this could just be cloud with the rain having fizzled out – and a bright day is still possible. I am certain that it will again feel rather cold in the northerly wind, close to 11’C if raining, though 15’C if we get some brightness. I will endeavour to update nearer the time. It isn’t like I have anywhere to be going.

Monday looks rather cloudy, but there should be some sunny spells at times, more likely in the afternoon. We’ll have cut off the chilly air source and in a westerly flow be reaching around 18’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, around 10’C.

I’m not massively confident on Tuesday’s forecast, but broadly sunny spells with a chance of showers or showery rain pushing up from the south-west later – bit of an unknown factor that.

Wednesday then sees the next area of low pressure arrive on a fairly strong jetstream. Either a band of rain, or areas of showers, windy too. Around 16’C.

Thursday onwards will be dominated by this area of low pressure – it won’t be able to go anywhere due to the huge block of high pressure over Russia, and will keep being fed energy from the Atlantic.

Most days from Thursday seeing either spells of heavy or very heavy rain, or heavy showers – thunder possible also.

The potential is there for gales, perhaps severe gales – though at this stage it is too far out to pinpoint anything, but the set-up does make a spell or two of damaging winds very possible.

As I mentioned, this low pressure isn’t going anywhere. The week after will again be unsettled, strong winds at times, heavy rain some days, showers other days.

Towards the middle of October there will be more settled days and I’m hopeful for some warmer weather from around mid-month. Though a long time away, and so far my autumn seasonal forecast has been a disaster, so don’t expect too much.

Further away, there are suggestions that if La Niña stays weak or moderate strength at most, then the chance of some colder weather for the first half of winter is very possible (with mild second half). But La Niña could well turn out to be strong, and in that case something similar to last winter looks more likely. Way too early to tell, but just a bit of hope for coldies.

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