Not as warm as it has been, but not actually too bad this weekend – a few showers around, but it looks like we are getting lucky again.
The possible heavy rain for Saturday (previously the slightly more likely outcome) will be to the east of the UK – and the showers focused further west. Low pressure will be in charge, but it will actually be reasonable.
Thanks to Kate for the photograph.
This evening sees one or two isolated showers, possibly very heavy, but these will fade and move north swiftly. Otherwise a fair amount of cloud, though some clear spells. A warmish night, no lower than 15’C.
Friday sees low pressure sat over Ireland, though a strong block of high pressure to our east helping keep thing reasonable.
Fairly cloudy in the morning – some brightness, some sunny spells. Increasing amounts of sunshine during the afternoon, though always some cloud. A few isolated showers – most places staying dry, but you could catch a heavy shower. Warm, 22’C but breezy too. A band of cloud and some patchy rain crossing during the evening, clear spells follow with temperatures down to around 12’C.
Saturday sees sunny spells and fair weather cloud, with a scattering of showers. Around a 50% chance of catching one or two, not likely to be too heavy if you do catch one, and should be fairly brief. Around 20’C and windy. One or two scattered heavy showers in the evening, perhaps with thunder – associated with the rain to the east of the UK. Clear skies follow with temperatures down to around 11’C.
Sunday is similar, sunny spells and fair weather cloud with a scattering of showers. Around a 50% chance of catching one or two, not likely to be that heavy, and more likely in the morning. 21’C and still quite windy. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.
Monday stays on the same theme – some sunny spells, plenty of fair weather cloud, some showers. Around 20’C and breezy. Cloud thickening from the west overnight, though clear spells at first. Down to around 12’C.
Tuesday is more uncertain – low pressure to our west will be trying to push east, but at the same time, high pressure looks like it will strengthen just to our east.
The more likely outcome sees a weather front stay to our west – and we stay dry with some hazy sunshine and feeling warm, possibly warmer than it has been. Not especially high confidence though.
If that was the outcome for Tuesday, then Wednesday would be more likely to stay dry, and temperatures more likely into the very warm or quite hot category.
The slightly more likely outcome for Thursday/Friday sees the chance of heat and humidity increase, but also with increased chances of thundery downpours. Fairly low confidence though so don’t get too hung up on it happening yet. It could easily end up cool and wet/very wet…or just fine and warm. Maybe just ignore this. And don’t ask me about next weekend yet.
I’m still fairly optimistic for good chunks of summer, I still think mid-July has the greater potential for heatwave conditions. I don’t expect a classic summer, but neither do I expect a wash-out. There should be enough warm sunshine, occasional hot spells, and enough heavy showers to keep all camps roughly content – metaphorical camps that is.