Thursday 23rd July 2020

Low pressure takes control. Well, it hasn’t rained that much recently, despite the amount of cloud.

Thanks to Andy for the photograph even though there’s a bit too much sunshine to match the upcoming forecast. Though there will be some sunshine…

This evening will be cloudy with the odd spot of rain from a weak weather front as it slowly moves south-east. Staying mostly cloudy overnight, 14’C.

Friday just about stays under control of a ridge of high pressure. Quite a lot of cloud, more cloud then sun overall, but it will be bright with some sunny spells. A small chance of an afternoon shower. Very warm, 24’C. Mostly cloudy and on the warm side overnight, one or two splashes of rain but dry for most of the night, 16’C.

Saturday sees low pressure in control, just to the north-west of Scotland.

The morning looks mostly cloudy, a few bright spells but more in the way of showery rain – some heavy. Perhaps a bit more sunshine in the afternoon but also some very heavy showers around, potentially merging into longer spells of rain – torrential downpours, thunder and hail all possible. Breezy but on the warm side when not raining at 21’C. Heavy showers/showery rain still likely in the evening but slowly clearing overnight, down to around 12’C.

Sunday starts with sunny spells – some cloud but fairly pleasant. The sun will be hazier in the afternoon with a scattering of showers too, but not everywhere getting a shower and not likely to be especially heavy. Warm, 23’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Monday is uncertain. The general picture is that another area of low pressure will approach from the south-west and bring some rain at some point either Monday or Monday night, and perhaps lasting into Tuesday.

So Tuesday is therefore also uncertain.

Potentially there could be some very heavy rain mixed in and possibly some very warm, humid air too before it rains – but it will be another day or so until the details are ironed out for Monday/Tuesday.

Wednesday looks like seeing high pressure build from the west – not especially warm with a north-westerly flow again, around 19’C with the odd scattered shower, but nothing of note.

Thursday sees high pressure over the UK, good sunny spells, some cloud bubbling up at times and a small chance of a light shower but otherwise a warm, pleasant day. Around 23’C. Low pressure will be close to the west though!

Next weekend is uncertain, though the slightly more likely outcome sees low pressure stalling to our west and allowing a brief southerly flow for a day or so.

Assuming so, Friday looks very warm/quite hot and sunny – 26’C, give or take.

As I said, I doubt the mini-plume will last more than a day, but if it lasts into Saturday then 30’C is possible, but rain and showers will be approaching from the west, and more likely Saturday is wet/showery.

If we do squeeze another quite hot day on Saturday, then most likely we go back to cooler and showery from Sunday.

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