Thursday 23rd December 2021

A wet Christmas it is.

The battle between colder air to our north-east and much milder but wetter air to the south-west, will take place over the Christmas period. Still some uncertainties in terms of details such as when it will rain, and what temperatures as these battles are difficult to forecast, but broadly the pattern is set now.

And in a week’s time, it almost certainly will be very mild.

A week ago I was pretty convinced that it would be a dry and cold Christmas – and yet we have the opposite. I’m not entirely sure what has caused such a dramatic pattern change from expectations, my suspicion is that the typhoon over the Philippines a week or so ago changed the pressure patterns, and hence downstream this is the knock-on effect.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

This evening and overnight will be mostly cloudy. A few clear spells at times earlier, but this will lead to mist and fog in places. Down to around 6’C.

Christmas Eve sees low pressure to our west trying to push in, though colder air to the north actually digs south a little.

It starts cloudy, some mist/fog patches though they will shift fairly quickly. A band of rain arrives in the afternoon, approximately 2pm, give or take, some heavy, perhaps very heavy. A bit of uncertainty as to how long it takes to push north as it will be pushing into the colder air which is trying (and ultimately about to fail) to push south – so around 4 hours of showery rain seems more plausible, but anything up to around 8 hours. Around 10’C. Generally cloudy overnight, the odd spot of light rain at times possible, 6’C.

Christmas Day (or just Saturday to me isolating at home on my own) sees the colder air nudging south a little. It will be cloudy – Friday’s band of rain to our north will sink south but also fizzle out – perhaps it will bring a little light rain. The next band of rain will arrive in the afternoon, timing uncertain though 2pm feels more likely, but as late as 5pm wouldn’t surprise. Likely showery and some heavy, it will continue well until the evening. 6’C and feeling colder. Rain slowly clearing overnight, 6’C.

Boxing Day is a bit uncertain, but broadly fairly cloudy to start, the odd showery bit of rain possible – probably some brighter spells later. Around 9’C.

Uncertain overnight. A new area of low pressure is going to approach, though at the moment it could head over France, or it could head over the south of England – so there could be a spell of heavy rain either overnight or into Monday, or it could remain dry, cloudy and possible foggy.

Monday’s forecast depends on what happens with this possible low pressure system, so there isn’t much I can say until that is resolved.

Tuesday, again uncertain, but the more likely outcome is cloudy with a bit of rain, but not likely too much. Around 11’C.

For Wednesday we should be seeing much milder air spread up from the south-west, as a strong area of high pressure builds over Spain and pushes north – oh for it to be July.

Likely windy with a band of rain at some point – timing unknown. But the story will be the mildness, around 14’C – perhaps even higher.

Thursday remains very mild, probably cloudy, perhaps some rain but unknown – less likely to rain than previous days.

Probably dry on New Year’s Eve, though it is a long time away – likely still very mild though. Possible somewhere in the UK might record the warmest ever New Year’s Eve – the record is 15.6’C set in 1901, in Great Yarmouth – would be somewhere north-east if it happens.

2022 likely starts very mild. Uncertain on any other weather conditions, though dry is slightly more likely than wet.

There is a chance of a cold and possible snowy easterly after the beginning of January, I rate it around a 30% chance and it would give a very notable 7 day (ish – very ish) cold spell if it occurs, but it is very early days, and lots needs to happen first. The kind of period would be somewhere between 5th January and 18th January, some section of that.

Otherwise January will be fairly mild, fairly wet and fairly windy.

Despite my Christmas being delayed and me therefore being slightly Grinch-like, I do still wish you all a pleasant Christmas – and if you don’t celebrate Christmas then I wish you a pleasant extended weekend. Well, unless you don’t celebrate Christmas and you work in retail or some other job without any time off in which case I wish you…joy.

I’ll either be back on Monday evening as usual, or perhaps Sunday evening if those little white sticks grant me permission to leave London before my 10 days are up.

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