Thursday 22nd December 2022

Well, the models have resolved the complex situation for now, and everything looks – normal. Yes, there’s rain and fairly average temperatures.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

Today is a mostly cloudy day. Early mist/fog patches will clear, there will be a little showery rain in the morning, and some brightness in the afternoon – but cloud is the main theme. Maybe the odd bit of showery rain in the afternoon too. Mild and breezy, 11’C. Mostly cloudy tonight, the odd spot of light rain possible, some mist/fog patches forming later, down to around 6’C.

The general set-up by Friday sees colder air trying to push down from the Arctic, but there is too much forcing from Atlantic systems, driven along by the jetstream. Milder air wins…for now.

Friday morning sees a band of heavy rain spread north-east, perhaps very heavy at times – around 4 hours of rain in total. Brighter from around lunchtime, maybe late morning, but a couple of heavy showers around after the main rain band clears – mostly sunny by mid/late afternoon. Around 11’C and breezy. Variable amounts of cloud overnight, the odd shower possible, down to around 6’C.

Christmas Eve looks fairly sunny, albeit with a lot of high cloud – so at least somewhat on the hazy side. Breezy and around 11’C. A few clear spells overnight, mostly at first, otherwise rather cloudy with a small chance of a shower. No lower than 9’C.

Christmas Day is still quite uncertain – but it won’t snow! The base case is for it to be fairly cloudy, breezy with a few scattered showers. However it looks like another little low pressure is going to develop and push up from the Bay Of Biscay – whether this crosses England or is further east over the continent is uncertain. So assume a 40% chance of a spell of heavy rain instead. Around 10’C. Colder air will push down from the north-west overnight, though timing on this uncertain – generally a mixture of clear spells, cloudy spells and the odd scattered shower, but how minimum temperatures anywhere from 2’C to 8’C.

For Boxing Day we are looking at good sunny spells, a little cloud but colder again, around 6’C and breezy. Clear skies at first, a frost possible but cloud thickening from the west later in the night. Down to around 1’C.

Tuesday looks rather cloudy as weather systems try to push in from the west – the main rain likely staying to our north and west, but some patchy light rain possible at times – otherwise rather cloudy, occasionally bright. Milder, around 9’C or so, and windy. Generally cloudy overnight – bits of rain probable.

Wednesday looks mild and windy, with a band of heavy rain spreading across at some point. This is all pretty normal now, isn’t it?

Uncertain where we go from here. Attempts at pushing cold air down from the north and/or building high pressure blocks close to our east are certainly possible – but whether they will be enough to overcome the re-invigorated jetstream that is now much closer to the UK, is uncertain.

Thursday and Friday next week more likely to see some showers or rain, New Year’s Eve perhaps a signal for something drier to develop and going into the start of 2023, though confidence fairly low.

And that is it for me until after Christmas. The next forecast will either be Tuesday or Wednesday next week, unless anything major changes in the meantime.

I wish you all a Merry Christmas – and if you don’t celebrate Christmas, then enjoy the long weekend.

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