Thursday 22nd April 2021

Stuck in a loop – dry, often sunny – no sign of proper warmth.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph – ducklings are always a winner with me – easiest way to melt my heart!

Clear skies tonight, down to around 1’C – a frost in some places, especially anywhere more sheltered.

Friday sees high pressure still in control, though now to the north-east of the UK.

Friday sees long spells of sunshine, with minimal cloud, just some high cloud in the afternoon. Quite warm in a south-easterly breeze, 17’C. High cloud remains overnight so less cold overnight than of late, 4’C.

Saturday again sees good spells of sunshine. Quite a bit of high cloud which may make it hazy at times, and the breeze swinging more easterly, so a tad cooler than Friday – say 16’C at a push. Clear spells at first though some cloud spilling in from the east later in the night, 5’C.

Sunday morning looks quite cloudy. Most likely the sun will start breaking through late morning, becoming predominantly sunny once it does. A bit of uncertainty on this – the cloud could hang on until the afternoon, if it does then temperatures close to 11’C, but assuming the more likely outcome of cloud clearing in the morning, 15’C. Clear spells overnight at first, cloud tending to build from the east later, 4’C.

Monday again has a bit of uncertainty over cloud amounts, though this time more likely that the cloud hangs on for longer – it could be rather dull for a fair portion, but there will be some sunny breaks at times also. Around 13’C. A weak weather front spreads south overnight, bringing more cloud and perhaps a bit of rain – perhaps. Down to around 4’C, give or take.

This weak weather front looks like it will introduce a north-easterly flow – yes, just before the bank holiday weekend. How many outdoor pub/restaurant bookings do I have? Just the 3. Sigh.

So Tuesday looks quite cloudy, with a few showers around. 13’C. Chilly overnight – a frost possible if clear skies, but cloudy with the odd shower also possible – it’s uncertain.

Wednesday will see some sunshine, but plenty of cloud and a few showers around. Feeling quite cold in the north-easterly wind, 11’C. Cold overnight, down to around 2’C – a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

Thursday should remain on the cool side. Uncertain on cloud amounts at this stage, I’d suggest more cloud than sun is more likely. A shower possible and somewhere around 12’C.

Friday should still be dry, but cool. Uncertainty on temperatures – we may just start to nudge something less cool up from the south, thanks to low pressure over Spain, but perhaps not. Somewhere between 11’C and 15’C – but don’t get your hopes up yet.

The bank holiday weekend is uncertain at this stage.

It looks like the low pressure that will form over Spain (or close to) will try to push warmer air north, but at the same time colder air may try to push south.

So we could be in the middle with pleasant averageness, we could end up with a chilly, cloudy weekend, we could end up with a pleasant and slowly warming weekend – though a chance of showers too.

Basically I don’t know yet. I can see the broader evolution, but how it will play out in the relatively small geographical area of southern England is uncertain.

I am more hopeful for warmth for the weekend after – but we could also see a few showers in the mix too.

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