Thursday 20th August 2020

Our little autumnal (ish) spell continues, but sun-seekers need not worry, we should return to summer in a while. Some people call it September…I’ll tell you more at the end.

Thanks to Paul again for the photograph…kind of monopolising things but on the money every time! I do appreciate all photographs sent in and try to mix up whose I feature, but with a website to cater for too, I do have to ensure that they fit – ie the width needs to be longer than the height! The other way around doesn’t work…sorry!

Yeah I’m difficult to please – has to match the coming weather, has to be good image quality, has to be wider than higher (square is actually fine) – and dogs or trains help 😉

So we start with a deep area of low pressure just to the west of Ireland – Storm Ellen as it has been named.

Tonight sees clear spells, becoming windy through the night but staying warm, around 18’C. A small chance of a passing shower later in the night but they should stay to our west.

Friday is a windy day, gusts of 40-45mph during the day which could be enough to bring some tree large branches or even a couple of trees down. Otherwise quite a bit of cloud, some sunny spells, and a scattering of blustery showers. Around 22’C. Clear spells overnight, still quite windy but less than during the day, down to around 16’C.

Saturday sees sunny spells and fair-weather cloud. A few scattered showers, some places missing out, temperatures around 21’C. Still quite windy. Clear spells overnight and a fresher feel, 13’C.

Sunday is another day of sunny spells and scattered showers. Not everywhere getting a shower, but on balance probably more around than on Saturday and they could be quite heavy. Pleasant in the sunshine, warm, around 22’C with lighter winds. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Elements of uncertainty for Monday. Suggestions of a more organised band of heavy showers crossing at some point during the day – timing uncertain, sunny spells before and after. Around 21’C.

Tuesday looks like seeing the jetstream aligned straight towards the UK with low pressure heading our way.

Significant uncertainty over the development of this low pressure as it stands. The most likely track is over the south of the UK, bringing strong winds and heavy rain – perhaps gale force winds. It could instead track over north France and bring us just heavy rain, or it could track over Scotland and just bring us some showers.

Timing is also uncertain, Tuesday most likely but it could arrive anywhere from Monday night through to Wednesday.

Assuming the most likely above outcome happened, then Wednesday would be a case of variable cloud amounts and some showers, probably a tad cooler.

Low in confidence by Thursday…really need the forecast for Tuesday’s low to sort itself out first. However, the somewhat more likely outcome is for a build of high pressure and a fine day with sunny spells.

For Friday and the bank holiday weekend, the most likely outcome looks like a mixture of some fine, warm days and some cooler days with rain or showers. Around a 60% chance. Still around a 20% chance of something very warm and pleasant but also a 20% chance of something close to a wash-out!

I promised you more summer. There are fairly strong signals towards a decent spell of warm/very warm and sunny weather for a decent chunk of September.

I do think September starts changeable – a mix of fine days and showery days, but high pressure should build from the south/south-west at some point between 5th and 10th September, and allow for perhaps two weeks of settled, summer-like conditions.

Still 2-3 weeks away, things can change at much shorter notice than that, especially during hurricane season, so don’t get carried away just yet, but considering how far away it is, my confidence is fairly solid.

Have a good weekend.

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