Thursday 1st July 2021

A return to summer is close, but we have one more low pressure system to deal with first – well, two systems but they are going to merge into one as they cross the UK over the next few days or so. Perhaps it is three systems, actually – a little hard to tell!

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

This evening has a small chance of a heavy shower developing, say around a 10% chance, otherwise overnight will see some clear spells, but also plenty of high/mid level cloud. Down to around 13’C.

Friday sees a large and complex low pressure trough to our west edge further east towards the UK.

It will be warm ahead of the low, with some sunny spells – though plenty of cloud around too, on balance over the course of the day likely a bit more cloud than sunshine. Also some scattered heavy showers will break out during the afternoon, say a 30% chance of catching one or two. Very warm, 23’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, a weather front spreading up from the south-west will bring some showers after midnight, potentially heavy towards dawn. Around 15’C.

Saturday is a day of limited sunshine and plenty of heavy showers. The best of any sunshine in the afternoon, but also the heaviest of the showers, thunder possible, in the afternoon too. Warm, around 21’C – most places should catch a fair few showers throughout the day. Some clear spells at first overnight, but mostly cloudy after midnight and the chance of some heavy showers increasing as the night goes on. Around 15’C.

Sunday is another day of limited sunshine and lots of heavy showers. There is a suggestion of something cloudier with more general showery rain in the morning, this turning into limited sunshine and frequent heavy showers. Showers could be very heavy with thunder possible. Around 19’C. Showers clearing in the evening, variable cloud overnight and down to around 13’C.

By Monday things get a bit more complex, and uncertain, with the low pressure systems still to our west but starting to move towards us quicker.

Current suggestions are for a something a bit calmer whilst we await the next weather front. Some sunshine though increasingly hazy, some cloud, and smaller chances of not so heavy showers. Around 20’C. Though I’m not especially confident on that, as it will depend on how the low pressure systems interact with each other. In the evening or overnight, heavy rain and possibly strong winds will spread up from the south – there is uncertainty on the timing (as well as uncertainty over the general evolution).

Tuesday sees the low pressure system over us, though starting to move away to our north. So it will be another day of sunshine and showers, some heavy – but overall less than on Saturday/Sunday. Possibly starting cloudy with some rain – depending on the timing of the likely rain from the night before. Around 20’C or so.

Wednesday should be something of an improvement, with sunny spells, a few scattered showers and temperatures around 21’C.

From Thursday onwards, we should start to see the Azores High nudge in from the south-west.

This isn’t guaranteed – the weather pattern and general momentum could feasibly allow for a final sneaky low pressure trough to creep in late next week instead, but at around a 70/30 chance, I’d say high pressure building from the south-west is the most likely outcome.

Which means from Thursday onwards through next weekend, decent spells of sunshine though still quite a bit of cloud around at times, starting to become warmer though nothing excessive, and still a shower chance though this gradually diminishing.

All this should – should set us up for a very warm/hot second half of July, with high pressure dominating and only occasional small chances of thundery downpours. And maybe even into the first part of August too.

A bit like the football, don’t get too excited yet…but there is promise. Have a good weekend.

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