An interesting day ahead if you enjoy thunderstorms, as I do.

Most of the time these situations are difficult to get a handle on in advance, though I have a bit more confidence than normal. Firstly they will be home-grown storms, so we are not relying on importing storms from France. Secondly, the forcing will be from the west, so we are much more in play then when the forcing is from the south, and storms develop overhead but drift north before doing anything.

The morning starts quite cloudy, a weak weather front brining cloud and some bits of showery rain in places – but equally you could stay dry. There’s a chance of a heavy shower and some rumbles of thunder during this stage, but unlikely.

During the morning, the cloud will move east, it will become sunny and hot once more – 28’C, maybe 30’C. At some point it will be enough for thundery showers to grow, there could be some gorgeous cloudscapes as they do. Initially more likely they develop to our west, from around 1pm onwards – but as the afternoon goes on, some of those storms will drift east, some will also start bubbling up in our area.

The main risk will be localised flooding from torrential downpours, but also there is a chance of large hail and frequent lightning.

As always in thundery breakdowns, some uncertainty abound. Around a 70% chance you catch a downpour, around a 40% chance you have thunder/lightning. Some places could stay dry and miss everything. You may even catch an unusually severe thunderstorm.

Full forecast will be issued tomorrow morning, but briefly tomorrow will be hot with a chance of a shower, Saturday sees patchy rain, maybe some sunshine later, Sunday warm, cloudyish with hazy sunshine.