Fairly cold and mostly dry, with overnight frosts.
Thanks to Tara for the photograph.
Mostly clear skies tonight though a bit of a breeze will stop temperatures falling too far, down to around -2’C. A small chance of one or two fog patches, though most places will stay clear.
For Friday we start to see high pressure building over the UK and to our east, diverting weather systems well to the north of the UK.
It will be mostly sunny, just a bit of cloud at times and temperatures a tad less cold, 5’C. Clear skies overnight, freezing fog forming in a few places though more likely it stays clear. Frosty, widely down to around -2’C – a bit lower in more sheltered spots.
Saturday will be mostly sunny for most areas, just a bit of cloud at times and around 5’C. If freezing form formed overnight, then it will likely be slow to clear and temperatures will be lower. Freezing fog more likely to form overnight than previous nights, down to around -3’C – lower in more sheltered spots.
Sunday probably starts foggy, no guarantee but more likely so, and assuming so, it will take some time to clear – maybe not until the afternoon. Limited sunshine in the afternoon. Reaching around 3’C, though if fog hangs around into the afternoon, your area may not reach above 0’C. A weak weather front to the west brings some uncertainty overnight, but more likely freezing fog forms once more, temperatures down to around -3’C – maybe lower.
Monday remains settled – probably freezing fog to start, which will likely take a fair amount of time to clear – sunny spells during the afternoon. Temperatures somewhere between 1’C and 4’C, depending on how long any fog takes to clear. A bit more uncertain overnight, though slightly more likely temperatures below 0’C with fog and/or frost possible – perhaps a bit milder and cloudier though.
High pressure remains in control for Tuesday, stretching from the Atlantic right into Russia.
Not especially high confidence for Tuesday, but more likely on the cloudy side, perhaps a little light rain, and temperatures less cold, say 6’C. Uncertain overnight – it could be chilly with a frost or cloudy with bits of light rain.
Suggestions of a weather front sinking south on Wednesday bringing some rain – not too much though. Timing uncertain at this stage, probably a bit milder.
High pressure likely remains in control for the rest of next week and into next weekend – perhaps into the early part of the week after but that is less certain.
Most likely we’ll see temperatures a little below average with overnight frosts, perhaps fog at times but otherwise reasonable amounts of sunshine by day. Maybe trending a bit milder by the weekend.
My thoughts for February remain for a split month – a spell of wet and mild weather in the first half, with a drier second half. Though I’m starting to feel that the drier second half, may also now be more likely colder.
Still keeping an eye on the stratosphere (the atmosphere above our level, the troposphere) – there is a warming event expected by the end of January. So far, I’d suggest it is not likely to be a sudden stratospheric warming, and therefore significant enough to drastically change our weather patterns down here (ie 2018’s Beast From the East or 2013’s cold and snowy March), but it’s certainly possible. Still think an SSW is around a 25% chance.
The warming event can still affect our weather even if it isn’t an SSW, and could raise concerns of a cooler spring. Too early to judge though. I certainly am no longer confident of a warmer than normal March! Back on the fence I sit for spring, until we know what the stratospheric warming event plays out.
Have a good weekend.