Thursday 19th August 2021

Well we nearly had a hot and sunny Saturday. Nearly.

The pattern is nudging east a bit quicker than expected, and I suspect due to the hurricane forming and heading towards eastern US – this means that showers arrive during the day on Saturday rather than evening/overnight – though on the bright side it does mean that this coming low pressure pushes through quickly, instead of hanging around for 5 days like so many have this summer.

Next week does look dry and there might even be some sunshine. Gosh.

Thanks to Katherine for the photograph.

One or two scattered heavy showers around this evening. Dry from late evening, some clear spells but more cloud overall. A small chance of one or two fog patches by dawn – but likely to be isolated in nature. Down to around 13’C.

Friday will be mostly cloudy, but warm. Some sunny breaks possible, more likely morning and late afternoon/evening, but mostly cloudy – the odd light shower possible. 22’C, maybe a tad more. Some clear spells at first overnight but clouding over later, perhaps some mist/fog in places too. A warmer night than of later, no lower than 15’C.

Saturday sees our next barely-existing low pressure trough cross the country. Sigh.

It will be mostly cloudy with showery rain crossing the country, from around mid-morning onwards though timing uncertain. Some brightness at times, and it will feel warm and humid – it won’t always be raining. However as the afternoon goes on, some of the showery bits could be very heavy, a small chance of thunder too. Around 22’C, assuming a bit of brightness. Once the main band of showers clears, roughly late afternoon, there should be more sunshine but also still some scattered very heavy showers, possibly thundery. Fairly cloudy overnight, showers possible, around 14’C.

Sunday sees low pressure already having just about cleared to our east. Cloudy spells, more likely in the morning, some sunny spells (some), more likely in the afternoon. Some showers also, more likely quite light/moderate in the morning, more likely quite heavy in the afternoon – but nothing especially heavy likely, and some places will miss them. 20’C. Likely mostly cloudy overnight, around 15’C.

Monday starts to see high pressure building, albeit to our north which isn’t the sunniest or warmest area for us. A bit of uncertainty on cloud amounts, but more likely more cloud in the morning, more sunshine in the afternoon, and around 22’C. Clear skies overnight, chance of some cloud towards dawn, down to around 12’C.

For Tuesday we have high pressure close to our north, with an easterly wind – though easterlies are normally still warm in August.

It should be a case of sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud – but there is always a chance of more general low cloud from an easterly, though at the moment it is only possible rather than likely. Assuming the relatively sunny scenario, around 21’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Wednesday to Friday will all be quite similar. Dry, some good sunny spells at times, but also some cloudy periods. Impossible to say when the cloudy periods will be at this stage – but if a good chunk of a day is cloudy, then temperatures closer to 18’C, if a good chunk of a day is sunny, then around 23’C.

The most likely outcome for the bank holiday weekend is similar to the week before – dry, some sunny spells, some cloudy spells, and warmish. Around a 65% chance. A 20% chance of something showery, or a 15% chance of sunny and very warm/quite hot.

Things are improving.

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