Thursday 18th November 2021

Colder weather is around the corner.

You have two more mild days left, but Sunday will be quite the change – and likely it will be colder than normal for the time of year for around 2 weeks – perhaps longer.

Thanks to Jonathan for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, the odd clear spell, no lower than 10’C.

Friday sees high pressure still over the south of the UK, though it is about to shift west.

A lot of cloud around, perhaps a bit of drizzle early on, but there will be some sunny breaks at times. Mild, 14’C. Cloudy overnight, perhaps a spot of drizzle at times, 10’C.

Saturday remains mild but the colder air will be starting to sink south. Generally cloudy, perhaps a spot of light rain or drizzle at times (more likely in the morning), perhaps some limited bright/sunny spells in the afternoon, but generally just more gloom. But the end of the gloom. A weak weather front sinks south overnight, bringing a bit of light, perhaps moderate rainfall – but still very small amounts of rain. Clear skies before dawn, down to around 5’C with the northerly breeze picking up.

For Sunday we are in a cold northerly wind, veering north-easterly.

Sunny in the morning, an area of cloud and showers will spread south during the afternoon. 7’C but feeling colder than that in a fresh northerly wind. Mostly clear skies overnight but too windy for a frost, down to around 4’C.

Sunny spells again for Monday. Some cloud at times and a small chance of a shower. 9’C but feeling colder in an easterly wind. A bit of uncertain on cloud amounts and also wind strength overnight, a chance of a frost but more likely too much cloud and/or wind.

Tuesday probably sees more cloud, though some sunny spells at times. Around 8’C. Lighter winds overnight so frost and/or fog possible – it wouldn’t surprise me to see freezing fog. Temperatures somewhere between -1’C and 3’C.

The more likely outcome for Wednesday is for it to be foggy – though not especially high confidence. Assuming so, it will be cold. 6’C if the fog clears, lower if not.

Thursday could be anything really – foggy, cloudy, sunny, wet, windy, windless – but likely it remains colder than normal, at around 6’C.

Friday and into next weekend looks like low pressure will head down from the north-west, but it’s too early to give day-to-day details.

Generally staying cool or cold, say somewhere between 4’C and 8’C, with some rain at some points, and it could be windy. Overnight frosts possible if winds are light and skies clear, but most nights will probably either have too much cloud or wind for a frost.

A small chance that some sleet/snow could be mixed in – there’s even an outside chance of heavy snow. But the more likely outcome for any areas of precipitation is that they fall as rain. It is still early in the season to be expecting snow – even in January/February conditions are often marginal at best down here.

So those of you who enjoy snow, keep your hopes in check and your expectations low. It can happen, but it requires fairly perfect set-ups at late November (ie November 2010) – and this ain’t perfect, but you could get lucky.

More likely this colder than normal north-westerly/northerly flow will continue into December, perhaps well into December. Some short mild spells likely, but more of the time it should be colder than normal, with the potential for something noteworthy.

Ahhh some interesting weather at last.

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