Thursday 18th January 2024

Brrrr then blowy.

Thanks to Chickena for the photograph.

Clear skies tonight mean another cold and frosty night, Widely down to around -5’C, sheltered spots a little lower.

Friday starts frosty. Otherwise long spells of sunshine all day, a bit more high cloud later on. The flow turning more westerly and temperatures a notch higher, at 4’C. Clear skies at first overnight will allow for another frost, down to around -2’C, though cloud will slowly thicken as the night goes on.

Saturday will be bright with hazy sunshine, as weather fronts struggle to push east. It will become quite windy though, reaching 5’C or so. Chilly to start the night, cloud will push east with some outbreaks of rain overnight – perhaps a little sleety at first, but it will turn to rain and become milder. Down to around 1’C – but around 8’C by dawn. The wind fairly strong too.

So by Sunday we are in a run of strong south-westerly winds – a mild direction, and likely caused by the strong plunge of Arctic air into America a week ago. Though perhaps also influenced by the sudden stratospheric warming event of this week – which was a bit of an unusual affair, and only technical in nature – with a very quick recovery of the polar vortex in the stratosphere. Quite what impact that will have down the line, I’m not sure – but it certainly wasn’t a classic SSW event.

So Sunday, some bright spells in the morning, but also a few splashes of rain around – minimal amounts. The afternoon mostly cloudy, the odd spot of rain possible, and windy – but mild, at 11’C. In the evening, a band of rain will cross but also the winds really pick up, gale force, gusts of 50-60mph look likely – so do except some disruption mid-evening onwards, and some isolated damage – fence panels, tree branches, etc.

There’s still a chance that the severity of this could upgrade – so keep an eye on the Met Office weather warnings if you have plans for Sunday evening/overnight.

Monday will be windy – do except the possibility of disruption in the morning, though the strongest winds should have cleared by dawn. Otherwise sunny spells, a bit of cloud, a stray shower is plausible but most likely dry. 9’C or so. Clear skies at first overnight, though becoming windier and cloudier later. Down to around 3’C, give or take.

Tuesday sees the next weather system arrive, heading to Scotland but packing some strong winds in once more. There will be rain at some point – though uncertain on the timing and extent at this stage. Mild, likely somewhere between 10’C and 12’C, though I wouldn’t rule out a 14’C.

After that it should dry out once more, with high pressure building from the south-west.

However, low pressure will be close to our north, so it will often be cloudy and windy. Generally mild.

Weather fronts will occasionally pass through – Thursday night or Friday for the next one, with some rain, though fairly small amounts.

For next weekend, high pressure should be over the UK, though likely the Atlantic will put up a stiff battle and try to push weather fronts across – at the moment, it looks more likely that high pressure will win, and it will stay dry. Sunshine/cloud amounts unknown at this stage. Average temperatures more likely, overnight frost/fog possible.

I still think February is more likely much drier than normal, and cold weather should feature at times. Perhaps early on more likely is a UK-based high pressure, with chilly days and frosty nights – winds from the east or north are very possible at times in February, which could bring wintry showers.

Early hints for March also suggest easterly winds are more likely than normal, though I’m fairly low confidence on this right now – I’d like to see what, if any impact the SSW has. As I said earlier, it wasn’t a clean cut SSW – technically it happened but whether it will have much impact I’m unsure. All the signs for cold spells in February are there, without an SSW – an SSW just kind of confuses things for me.

Oh well. Have a good weekend.

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