Thursday 18th August 2022

Changeable, but generally very warm with a fair amount of sunshine.

I hope you enjoyed the showers/downpours – it was a bit hit and miss, as expected, but most places did get some long-awaited rain.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Sunny spells this evening but cloudy overnight as a weather front crosses, bringing a little bit of showery rain. Another fairly warm night at around 18’C.

For Friday, the general picture sees low pressure near Iceland, and the Azores high trying to nudge in from the south-west.

Any remnants of the overnight weather front will very quickly clear to sunny spells. Some fair weather cloud, particularly in the afternoon, and still very warm at 24’C or so. Clear skies overnight and a fresher night, down to around 13’C. Phew.

Saturday starts sunny. Quite a bit of fair weather cloud bubbling up from mid-morning onwards, likely more cloud than sunshine overall. A scattering of fairly light showers – though many places avoiding them. Very warm once more, 23’C, maybe 24’C in a westerly breeze. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

On my previous forecast, I thought the slightly more likely outcome for Sunday would be rain spreading across – however the expected low pressure is slower to develop, so Sunday will actually be fine. Hazy sunshine in the morning, thicker cloud in the afternoon but still some brightness – the odd shower possible. Around 23’C, maybe 24’C. Potential for a small area of showers to cross in the evening – uncertain, then showery rain erratically crossing from the west overnight – timings uncertain. Some heavy bursts possible. Down to around 15’C.

Details a bit hazy for Monday, but generally fairly cloudy with showers or showery rain – some heavy bursts possible, but also there will be spells where it is dry, especially later in the day – some late sunshine possible. Not 100% confidence yet though on this. Around 22’C – give or take.

Tuesday probably sees more cloud than sunshine overall, but there will be some sunny spells. Showers still possible, mostly in the morning, though plenty of places missing them – and not likely to be heavy. A little warmer, 24’C or so.

Wednesday has some uncertainty – a weak weather front should cross at some point bringing cloud and a bit of rain – but timing uncertain. Until it arrives, then it will be very warm. perhaps quite hot – between 23’C and 27’C. If it arrives in the morning – then sunny for later in the day, if it arrives in the afternoon/evening, then hazy sunshine beforehand.

Thursday sees the Azores high trying to build across us again – trying! Fairly low confidence, but the more likely outcome is a sunny and warm day.

Friday and into the bank holiday weekend continues the theme of the Azores high trying to build from the west. So the more likely outcome sees good spells of very warm/quite hot sunshine – possibly hot hot.

However. There is a chance that low pressure develops close to our east at some point during this period – possibly as early as Thursday, and if close enough, it could bring some heavy rain/showers. And likely lower temperatures – if this occurs, it probably wouldn’t be for the whole weekend – so some part of the extended weekend should be warm and sunny, at worst.

Will take a few more days to resolve which way the bank holiday weekend goes.

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