Well, the thunderstorms evaded us last night – it was a Kent only event in terms of thunder/lightning, as it so often has been in recent years in such plume destabilisation scenarios.#
There are further chances of some thunder/lightning in the coming days – and certainly of lots of heavy rain. Summer is over…for a while.
Thanks to Chickena for the photograph…had to scroll a way back to find a rain one!
This evening sees showery rain, some heavy, perhaps very heavy in one or two spots. It should become generally light and patchy towards midnight – though this is uncertain. Then at some point after around 2am (feasibly it might not be until 7/8am) further outbreaks of heavy/very heavy rain will spread up from the south – a small chance of some thunder mixed in too. Another warm and humid night, no lower than 15’C.
Friday sees low pressure in control to our south-east.
Spells of very heavy rain should spread up from the south, potentially torrential at times with thunder very possible, along with localised flash flooding. Again, there is uncertainty as to how this develops – one model isn’t really having it at all, but all other models are, so the event as a whole is around a 95% chance. Rainfall could be excessive – anywhere from 20mm (which is the kind of amount from a full-on autumn weather system) to 60mm, which certainly would cause flash flooding in places. Different areas will see differing amounts of rain. Temperatures around 16’C. Rain will become more showery and less heavy in the evening, and clear overnight – down to around 11’C.
Saturday is going to be mostly cloudy, at least in the morning. There should be a bit of sunshine in the afternoon – though amounts uncertain and more likely more cloud than sunshine. Temperatures somewhere between 19’C and 22’C, depending on sunshine amounts. The odd scattered shower will be possible in the afternoon if the sun comes out to any decent extent, and then at some point in the evening/overnight (timing uncertain), further rain will spread up from the south – likely heavy, possibly very heavy/torrential at times, a rumble or two of thunder again possible. Down to around 11’C.
Sunday is a bit of a messy picture, and gosh this is the hardest work forecast for some time. Likely cloudy to start, possibly some showery rain still to clear. The sun should come out, but further scattered showers will be possible. Still on the warm side, 20’C. Further showers or showery rain possible overnight – uncertain.
Monday is most likely a day of limited sunshine and lots of heavy showers. Thunder possible. Again a bit of uncertainty on position of the low pressure system, so there could be fewer showers, but most likely lots. The positioning of the low pressure system means temperatures could be anywhere from 14’C to 20’C. Further rain or shower probable overnight.
That word again, “uncertain” for Tuesday. Low pressure is likely to be having less influence, with fewer showers and showers being less heavy. Also feeling notably cooler, around 15’C.
Wednesday, confidence is not high, but more likely to be a reasonable day – some cloud, some sunshine, small chance of a shower. Somewhere between 17’C and 20’C.
I don’t think I can suggest day to day details from here.
Though generally Thursday onwards looks changeable, with at least one low pressure system moving through from the west/north-west, which would bring a pattern of one band of rain, followed by 1-2 days of heavy showers, followed by 1-2 days of fine conditions. Temperatures around average.
Things should generally recover for the beginning of July, maybe a few days into July, with more warm/very warm sunshine – occasional bands of rain or showers too.