Thursday 17th December 2020

Mild and wet for a few days – but turning colder in time for Christmas – Christmas Eve, in fact. Even the Met Office finally seem to be buying into cold weather for the end of the month.

Still a lot of details up in the air for the Christmas period, I still rate the chance of a technical White Christmas here as very, very small – 10% at the very most. More later…first we need to talk rain.

Thanks to Naomi and Gary for the photograph. Not very representative of the coming weather – but too good not to use!

Tonight will be cloudy with a band of showery rain crossing after midnight. Around 8’C at first, but picking up to 11’C as the night goes on – and becoming windy also.

Friday will be mostly cloudy with occasional bits of rain – mostly light. Mild and windy, becoming notably strong later in the day, 12’C. A band of rain slowly crossing overnight, some heavy rain probably mixed in. Winds becoming less strong, 10’C.

Saturday sees low pressure to our north-west – and things not so blocked to our east as they have been the last few weeks.

Early cloud and rain will clear east to be replaced by sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. Some heavy showers may push inland in fairly strong winds, 11’C. Clear spells overnight – it should be dry but a passing shower cannot be ruled out. Down to around 6’C.

Sunday sees sunny spells and lighter winds. Variable amounts of cloud and one or two showers possible. 10’C. Clear spells at first overnight and quite chilly – heavy rain arriving from the south-west later in the night, with strong winds possible. Down to around 5’C overnight, picking up to around 11’C as the rain sets in.

So Christmas week starts with a small succession of low pressure systems arriving from the south-west, and I don’t feel the modelling is quite there yet – so there might be some differences in timing, rain/wind intensity, from what is currently expected. I guess I cannot totally rule out the low pressure systems being further south than currently modelled, with colder air and perhaps some sleet/wet snow mixed in – but I think very unlikely for the start of the week.

Wet and windy to start Monday – clearing to sunny spells. Mild, 13’C. Uncertain overnight – further rain could spread from the south-west but it is uncertain how far north it will get – and therefore temperatures could be anywhere from 3’C to 12’C – the boundary between cold and mild being rather small.

Tuesday is probably rather cloudy and dry – awaiting Wednesday’s low pressure system. We should stay in the milder air, somewhere between 8’C and 12’C. Further heavy rain likely spreads up overnight – and likely at the upper end of the mild bracket.

Wednesday looks wet at times – uncertain as to when, but some heavy rain is likely at times with milder air, say 13’C. Winds could become strong as the system develops. The wind then turns to the north later in the day as the low pressure system really winds up and pushes east – strong winds possible overnight as is heavy rain. I cannot rule out the rain turning to sleet or wet snow. Plenty of uncertainty this far out so expect details to change a bit.

Christmas Eve starts with a fairly strong northerly wind – it could still be wet, depending on the timing of Wednesday’s system. Likely becoming sunny but feeling cold, 6’C at best. I cannot totally rule out a shower. Likely frosty overnight, down to 0’C or lower.

Christmas Day looks cold with sunny spells. Around 4’C. A shower is possible – and could be wintry. But a low chance of both a shower, and it being wintry.

Boxing Day is pushing things a bit too much – suggestions of a more north-westerly flow so temperatures ticking back up a little. Uncertain on sunshine/cloud/rain etc.

Where we go from there is more uncertain, though I’d suggest a northerly flow (or something close to) is the slightly most likely outcome for the final week of 2020 – which could easily bring some snow showers. Alternatively something cold and dry would be a very possible outcome.

Not especially expecting a return to wet and mild just yet, and we may even get a chilly start to January too. I still expect a reversion to wet and mild for January, but maybe not until the second week now.

Lots going on, I’ll try to keep you updated if anything major changes for next week, in the weekend model runs. Though I have lots going on myself (albeit only inside my house, alas).

Full forecast will be on Monday as usual…probably just a short update on Christmas Eve though…we’ll see.

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