Thursday 16th September 2021

The reasonable weather continues (for now), though some showers possible and some cooler nights.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Tonight will be fairly clear, albeit with some high cloud, down to around 12’C.

Friday morning sees hazy sunshine. General cloud will bubble up from late morning, and for a while there will be more cloud than sunshine – but becoming sunnier again later in the afternoon. Still warm, 22’C. Quite cloudy overnight though some clear spells, down to around 13’C.

By Saturday, the general picture is of a somewhat more energised Atlantic trying to push weather fronts in from the west – but coming up against a big block of high pressure to our east, with some unusually cold weather for the time of year in Scandinavia/Russia.

It will be pleasant for us, some decent sunny spells though a fair amount of cloud too. A 20% chance of a shower, more likely in the afternoon, but also possible first thing. 23’C. Rather cloudy overnight, a little bit of rain at some point as a weak weather front tries to push east, 15’C.

Sunday is a tricky forecast, the aforementioned weak weather front will sporadically be moving east, but will also start to intensify. Getting the location of where it will be when it starts to intensify during the morning is tricking – but most likely we’ll see showers or showery rain slowly and erratically pushing east. Don’t be shocked if it stays dry, it will depend on how far east the weather front pushed overnight, but most likely it won’t. Temperatures somewhere between 16’C and 20’C. Uncertain overnight – it is feasible that the weather front could get stuck in place, and we end up wet, but more likely it will have pushed east and we’ll see clear spells and around 10’C.

Monday is also a bit tricky. Broadly speaking, some sunny spells and quite a lot of cloud. However it is feasible that the weather front is either still stuck over us, or heads back west over us – and brings some more showers/showery rain. Temperatures around 19’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 8’C.

Tuesday is easier – sunny spells, fair weather cloud – likely more cloud than sunshine around the lunchtime hours, and around 18’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Wednesday sees a weather front spread down from the north-west, but more likely it stays dry for much of the day, with spells of sunshine, albeit increasingly hazy. Around 20’C. Timing is uncertain on the weather front as it spreads down from the north-west, but more likely either evening or overnight – bringing a spell of rain and some strong winds. Down to around 10’C.

Thursday looks like autumn announces its arrival – with low pressure spreading down from the north-west with more seasonal temperatures.

Some sunny spells, but also some cloud with either scattered showers or a band of general rain – uncertain right now. Quite windy and around 16’C. Variable cloud overnight, around 9’C, a shower or two possible in the wind.

Friday will be broadly similar, showers or rain, windy, cool – though some sunny spells also possible. Around 15’C.

Next weekend is uncertain at this stage. Slightly more likely outcome is that we stay in this cooler, north-westerly slow, windy, some showers but some sunshine too – or something like that.

Further warm days remain likely for the end of September and into the start of October, often dry with sunshine – but also weather fronts bringing rain, wind and fresher weather occasionally.

As October progresses, I do expect more north-westerly flows, so expect more wind, showers and cooler than normal conditions at times.

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