Thursday 16th March 2023

Much milder, but with showers.

This evening and tonight will be mostly cloudy with occasional bits of rain. Around 10’C.

The general set-up for Friday sees a plume of warmer air over France, and low pressure close to Ireland, which will drive some instability – and mildness.

An area of showery rain will move up from the south-west during the morning, some heavy bursts possible – though there is a 10% chance that it stays further east and therefore mostly dry. A few scattered heavy showers in the early part of the afternoon, say a 30% chance of catching one or two, though increasing sunny spells. Breezy, 14’C, maybe even a 15’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, a few showers around, down to around 9’C.

Saturday starts fairly cloudy – scattered showers will develop, perhaps heavy, with a chance of an hour or two of general rain roughly around the lunchtime period. A bit more in the way of sunshine in the afternoon, though still scattered showers around. 12’C or so. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 8’C.

Hazy sunshine for Sunday – a fairly pleasant early spring day all in all. Just a very small chance of a shower, but unlikely. Around 13’C, give or take. Cloud continuing to thicken overnight, but it should stay dry, bar the chance of the odd spot of light rain, 8’C.

Monday will be mostly cloudy but mild, as weather fronts try to push in from the west. Some hazy sunshine at times, perhaps a little light rain. Breezy, 13’C, maybe 14’C. The weather front crossing overnight bringing a bit of rain – timing uncertain but more likely in the second half of the night. Around 7’C.

By Tuesday we have high pressure strengthening over Europe, warming up the continent somewhat, but a succession of low pressure queuing in the Atlantic.

Tuesday itself sees some cloud, some sunny spells and the odd light shower – becoming breezy too. Still mild, 14’C or so. Cloudy overnight as weather fronts approach, breezy or windy.

From there weather fronts will try to cross – a bit of uncertainty as to when it will rain as the high pressure block will impede progress somewhat – but it should rain at various points Wednesday to Friday.

Temperatures generally between 12’C and 15’C, though depending on how the low pressure systems phase and the timing of weather fronts, it isn’t impossible that we could squeeze a quite warm day with hazy sunshine, say 16’C to 18’C.

Low pressure more likely in charge next weekend than not, and perhaps a little cooler again.

Suggestions that something colder could spread down from the north around the end of the month, but fairly low confidence on that.

Enjoy your weekend.

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