Thursday 16th June 2022

Very hot then very uncertain. Fresher air is on the way, but it is going to struggle to properly establish itself.

Thanks to Dawn for the photograph.

An outside chance of a light shower this evening, but otherwise this evening and overnight will see lots of high-level cloud – keeping the warmth in, and temperatures no lower than 17’C for most, though a little lower in rural spots. Feeling on the muggy side.

Friday starts with this unusually hot air that has been dragged up from Africa, thanks to a little low pressure system to the west of Spain – though with another low pressure system to our north trying to push down a cold front.

It will start with some high cloud, potentially making the sunshine rather hazy at times in the morning, but this increasingly breaks up into glorious sunshine. Hot…maybe you’d call it very hot, we should reach 32’C – perhaps 34’C. Mostly clear skies overnight though some cloud by dawn. Another warm and humid night, likely no lower than 18’C.

And that’s the easy part of the forecast done already. Sigh.

The difficulty is that the cold front will be trying to push south, but also there is a bit of momentum from a low pressure system developing to the west of France, that will try to push the heat back north.

It’s still a close call, but the slightly more likely outcome for Saturday is that the cold front will be to our north, say Birmingham ish, and may actually push back a bit further north. This means that it will remain very warm, possibly hot, with at least some sunny spells, albeit probably hazy – with smallish chances of a shower. Assuming so, then somewhere between 24’C and 30’C depending on sunshine amounts.

If this slightly more likely outcome occurs, then during the evening, some very heavy rain, possibly thundery, will be more likely, as the cold front bumps into the daytime energy from the heat.

However, the slightly less likely outcome is very different and sees the weather front over us, or close to, bringing more cloud and some showery rain at times – temperatures in the range of 15’C to 20’C if so.

In either outcome, overnight will see some cloud, some occasional showery rain possible, and temperatures down to around 12’C – much fresher.

Details again uncertain for Sunday. It will be fresher, there will be cloud, there could be sunshine, and probably there will at least be some showers – depending on how close the earlier weather front is to our south – which is probably going to try to move back north. A small chance of general rain instead of showers. Somewhere between 18’C and 20’C.

Things settle down on Monday, both in terms of the weather and also my ability to do a forecast.

Sunny spells, some cloud at times – likely more sunshine in the afternoon than morning. Warm, 22’C – maybe a little more. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

For Tuesday it looks like we’ll tap into the heat over France once more, not hugely but enough to increase temperatures and humidity. We should be looking at sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud – maximum temperatures probably somewhere between 24’C and 28’C depending on exact wind direction. A small chance of a heavy, thundery shower drifting up from France – but unlikely. Probably clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

By Wednesday we see more of a north-westerly – normally a cooler direction but actually there is some unusually warm upper air to our north-west, which should keep Wednesday warm or very warm. Some cloud at times, but also some sunny spells and a small chance of a light shower. Breezy too. Temperature somewhere between 21’C and 27’C. I know, still lots of uncertainty on details.

More likely for Thursday we’ll see something similar to Wednesday, some cloud at times, particularly around lunchtime – potentially quite overcast for a time, but sunny either side. Probably still warm or very warm, though some uncertainty, so more likely somewhere between 22’C and 27’C – but don’t be surprised if cooler air has pushed down from the north/north-west and it is closer to 18’C.

For Friday and into next weekend, it is roughly 50/50 as to whether the warm/very warm air can hang on, with pleasant sunshine and some cloud – or we have something cooler and somewhat showery, spreading down from the north/north-west. Maybe marginally more likely is the warm/very warm and dry/sunny weather. Close call though.

The more likely outcome to end the month and begin July, is to see more very pleasant, settled weather – with decent spells of sunshine, temperatures very warm/quite hot – with moderate chances of briefly importing heat and/or thunderstorms from France.

Not bad, huh? Well, unless you don’t like summer.

Apologies for the uncertainty, especially close range for the weekend. I’ll try to find time to update either Friday evening or Saturday morning, for the weekend rain potential.

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