Thursday 16th February 2023

Very mild and boring for a few more days – but a colder spell likely by the middle of next week.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, a few clear spells at first, perhaps a spot of light rain at times, and becoming windy later. On the mild side, no lower than 9’C.

Our dominant high pressure remains close to our south for Friday, though low pressure systems to our north are closer.

It will be a cloudy day, a windy morning – some bits of light rain possible, more likely in the afternoon. Very mild, 13’C, maybe 14’C. Cloudy overnight, becoming fairly windy once more, some bits of light rain possible in the evening and again around dawn. No lower than 10’C.

Saturday will be mostly cloudy, breezy with occasional bits of light rain. Possibly a little brightness at times in the afternoon. Very mild again, 13’C, maybe 14’C. Cloudy at first overnight though that will move south and be replaced by clear spells. Still breezy, down to around 5’C.

Sunday looks bright with spells of hazy sunshine, some more general cloud at times. Around 12’C, give or take. Some clear spells at first overnight though generally cloudy from late evening onwards. Down to around 7’C.

Monday is uncertain on cloud amounts, more likely on the cloudier side though. However, if there is some sunshine in the afternoon it will be the closest to a spring feeling so far this year, temperatures reaching between 13’C and 15’C. It might be quite a while until it really does feel like spring though. Quite a while. Quite a bit of cloud overnight though there should be some clear spells, down to around 7’C.

Tuesday is probably the last mild day until a transition to something colder, though I’d stress a high level of general uncertainty in the models for the next week or so, whilst we are waiting for the impacts of the sudden stratospheric warming event. Again uncertain on cloud amounts, though more likely on the cloudier side. Temperatures somewhere between 10’C and 13’C.

Things get tricky then. Both the American model and the Met Office model send a cold front down on Tuesday night – so Wednesday and Thursday are much colder, say around 6’C, some showers around, possibly a wintry flavour.

However the European model, which tends to verify with slightly higher accuracy sends the cold air further west, and we stay in kind of mildish air (10’C or so) with a few showers also possible.

I’m kind of 50/50 as to the correct solution at the moment.

From Friday and into the weekend, the more likely solution would be high pressure over the UK, so temperatures around normal by day, frost/fog very possible overnight. This set-up the more likely general outcome for the beginning of March, though low confidence.

From there we await the response of the sudden stratospheric warming event. It has happened, or at least is currently happening, and normally takes 2-4 weeks to affect our weather down here.

So any time from 5th March onwards, more likely we see high pressure further north of the UK, more likely we see low pressure further south over France/Spain, but occasionally probably over the south of England.

And easterly winds becoming more likely, so on the cold side – with at least a small chance of something notably cold/wintry as March develops.

Assuming this happens, then colder spells with easterly or northerly winds also being more likely than normal during April. Urgh. And May. Urgh. With apologies for not being amused at a cold spring – I do normally try to stay objective.

Of course, it isn’t settled that the aforementioned more likely outcome happens – the least likely outcomes do happen sometimes, and it will be another week until the models have a decent handle on what the impacts of the SSW will be.

Enjoy your weekend!

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