More sunshine and warmth – not all the time, but plenty of it.

Thanks to Fay for the photograph.

We continue with the same kind of pattern we’ve had for a while, low pressure near Iceland on a fairly notable jetstream, but high pressure nosing in across the south of the UK. Our good summer friend, the Azores High.

Sunny spells to start Thursday, though gradually clouding over during the day as a weakening weather front approaches from the west. Warm, 23’C though becoming quite windy later. Cloudy in the evening and overnight, a bit of occasional showery rain around, you may miss it all, you may get the odd heavy burst. Clearing towards dawn and no lower than around 16’C.

Still a bit of cloud on Friday morning but this will clear to leave good, and increasingly long spells of sunshine, if perhaps hazy at times in the afternoon. Very warm, around 25’C or so. Clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Saturday starts sunny. High cloud will push across from the west from around lunchtime onwards making it hazy, but still very pleasant. Warm, around 24’C or so. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Sunday remains fine with sunny spells. Some uncertainty on cloud amounts though likely more sunshine than cloud overall, and another very pleasant day. Warm, around 24’C or so. Gosh how nice it is to write forecasts like these. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Little change in the broad picture nearby next week, with ridges of high pressure still in control – though the jetstream becoming a bit more meridonal again as the next hurricane travels up the east coast of USA.

Monday broadly looks sunny and very warm, around 25’C – some cloud probable.

A weather front looks like it will cross either Monday night or during the first part of Tuesday, bringing some rain – sunny spells will follow later on Tuesday.

Wednesday most likely sees further sunshine, some cloud – uncertain on temperatures as (to be) ex-hurricane Ernesto will be approaching, which may bring warmer and more humid air along – though prior to that slightly fresher air may arrive. So it could be around 22’C or around 26’C.

Then the question for Thursday and beyond will be what will Ernesto do – more likely I think it will be caught up in the jetstream and bring wind/rain to Scotland, we’d stay dry and warm for Thursday with a weakening weather front bringing some rain at some point, maybe overnight or into Friday. And that would lead to a broadly decent bank holiday weekend, with more sunshine, some cloud and more likely mostly dry. I’d suggest this is around a 70% chance, as it stands.

Other less likely options see Ernesto heading south towards the west of Spain/Portugal and acting as a heat pump – which we haven’t really seen this summer in classic terms – to bring heatwave conditions.

Or maybe it takes a more southerly track over the UK, and brings some rain and wind for Thursday or Friday, and something more changeable for the bank holiday weekend, but nothing too poor.

So next weekend’s details will depend on what Ernesto does, but more likely it stays broadly similar to now. And I see no reason for the general pattern not to persist into the beginning of September.

Enjoy your weekend.