Thursday 13th July 2023

Summer was broken – and it is about to get even more autumnal.

Thanks to Marina for the photograph.

Today will see plenty of cloud, some sunshine, and some scattered heavy showers – some places missing them, but more likely you’ll catch a couple of showers. Chances of showers lower later in the afternoon, with more sunshine. Reaching around 23’C and breezy. Becoming cloudy in the evening and overnight, down to around 15’C.

So the general picture for Friday sees our low pressure trough still in control of north-west Europe, but a new low pressure system arrives from warmer seas to our south-west arriving to inject more energy.

There might be some initial hazy sunshine, but outbreaks of showery rain arriving from the south-west during the morning – sometimes light, sometimes quite heavy, sometimes not raining. Potential for some particularly heavy bursts late afternoon into early evening, before it clears to leave a mostly dry evening. Windy and generally around 16’C to 18’C – though it may briefly be warmer/humid in the afternoon before the heavier showery rain late afternoon/early evening so a short spell of 22’C is possible. Variable amounts of cloud overnight, a shower possible, around 15’C.

Low pressure bang in charge for Saturday. Heavy showers from dawn onwards, perhaps very heavy with thunder – possibly even merging into a longer spell of heavy/very heavy rain for a couple of hours. Delightful. I’d be surprised if anywhere dodged all the showers, but possible – more likely you catch multiple showers. Tending to be fewer and less heavy towards the evening. Around 18’C, maybe 19’C. Oh and strong winds – unusually so for July, perhaps gusting gale force – don’t be shocked with a few tree branches down, etc. Variable cloud overnight, probably dry, still windy and around 14’C.

Low pressure pulls away on Sunday, leaving some sunny spells, plenty of fair-weather cloud and a few showers – possibly heavy, though some places avoiding them. Still quite windy, reaching around 20’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

A bit of uncertainty on Monday, but more likely sunny spells and scattered heavy showers. Reaching around 21’C in a lighter breeze.

Again Tuesday onwards is somewhat uncertain on details, though high pressure should at least be trying to build from the south-west – I don’t see a smooth transition from one regime to another though.

So in general, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday all look relatively fair, variable amounts of cloud and sunshine, scattered heavy showers possible, and temperatures in the range of 21’C to 23’C – so warm in any sunny spells.

Going any further is probably futile – there are suggestions of a tropical system developing far to our south-west and how that interplays with the Azores High will likely determine our weather following.

Certainly plausible, perhaps slightly more likely that late next week and into the weekend ends up with a more north-westerly flow, with the Azores High being squeezed north – to our west. Not the best set-up – cloud more likely than sun, and some showers, and temperatures likely a little below average.

However, also plausible is that the Azores High spreads further east, across the UK – and whilst sunshine/cloud amounts would be uncertain, it would be drier and warmer.

Such suggestions have been hinted at for a while, though keep being pushed back – and I guess until we resolve the developing tropical storm far to our south-west, then we’ll just have to hope for a return to something summer-like.

Next forecast probably not until Tuesday as I’m escaping the rain for a weekend in Paris…what wonderful timing! Au revoir.

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