Thursday 13th August 2020

Me again! More heat, more humidity and more thunderstorms ahead. Though the peak of the heat has passed – more quite hot than very hot, broadly speaking.

I could have spent as long picking a photograph as writing the forecast – there are so many to choose from. Thanks to David for posting this.

This evening still sees scattered thunderstorms. As they have been all week, very hit and miss – some of you could get 1-2 hours of torrential rain and thunderstorms, some just a brief thunderstorm, others nothing. Overnight, still a small chance of a thundery shower but most places dry. A bit fresher though still warm and humid, down to around 18’C.

Friday has low pressure just to our south-west and we remain in this very warm and rather humid flow.

Much more cloud than of late – though there will be some brightness, some hazy sunshine. Heavy showers breaking out any time from dawn, some thundery. Again they will be hit and miss – some places may miss out completely, most places should get at least some downpours, and some thunder. There is also a chance of showers merging into longer spells of rain, especially in the afternoon. Localised flooding possible in the heaviest of downpours. Very warm, humid too, around 25’C. Showers overnight, a rumble of thunder still possible, around 18’C.

Saturday starts rather cloudy – showers possible. The sun should break out in the afternoon, albeit somewhat hazy, and temperatures should reach around 25’C – give or take a couple. However (assuming the sun comes out), further heavy showers will develop, plenty of them, they could be torrential with hail and thunder mixed in, and perhaps localised flooding. A small chance of a shower overnight, mostly dry and increasingly cloudy – fog possible. Around 18’C.

Sunday starts cloudy, possibly foggy. This soon lifts, the sun comes out and you know what happens next! Heavy, thundery showers break out and spread up from the south – I think more likely late afternoon and into the evening. Quite hot before the showers arrive, around 26’C but could be 2-3’C either way, depending on how quickly the morning cloud lifts and when showers arrive. Humid. Showers or thunderstorms remain very possible overnight, around 17’C.

Monday looks like it will be the last day of our thundery low being fully in charge, with slightly fresher conditions also starting to edge in. Some sunny spells, but plenty of heavy showers around, hail, thunder, torrential rain all very possible. Very warm, around 23’C. Some clear spells overnight, the odd shower still possible, around 16’C.

Tuesday sees more in the way of warm sunshine, but still some showers developing. Less likely than recent days, but still could be very heavy with a rumble of thunder. Very warm, around 23’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 14’C.

The general pattern from midweek looks to see a deepening area of low pressure slowly approach from the west – dragging up warmer air from the south again before it arrives.

So Wednesday and Thursday potentially very warm or quite hot. There is a chance of a band of rain at some point through these two days, but that will depend on the progress of the low pressure system which is far from certain…it is a week away!

Next weekend therefore looks wet, windy and almost autumnal. If low pressure doesn’t arrive until Saturday, then Friday could be hot or very hot, but most likely low pressure will be on the scene from Friday.

No strong signals on how August ends. Short hot spells remain possible (1-2 days), otherwise I’m assuming something similar to the pattern of July, with the Azores High ridging in, bringing some warm sunshine, some cloud, with the odd cooler, showery day.

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