Thursday 12th November 2020

Time for something a bit more autumnal – though not quite full-on.

Thanks to Christopher for a rather awesome shot. Was from over a week ago, but too good not to use!

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, the odd splash of rain possible overnight but mostly dry, 9’C.

Friday starts with a fairly short band of showery rain crossing, say roughly 7am to 9am. Sunny spells follow, though hazy in the afternoon. Breezy and around 12’C. Cloud slowly thickening overnight – quite chilly at first, down to 7’C but becoming much milder by dawn, as outbreaks of rain arrive, and it becomes windy – around 13’C by dawn.

Saturday sees outbreaks of rain. It won’t always be raining though, there will be some dry spells, more notably at times in the morning when it should be bright too, though still some occasional rain. More rain in the afternoon, still some dry spells – suggestions of a short spell of very heavy rain either late afternoon or during the evening, perhaps even a rumble of thunder and some gusty winds mixed in. Mild and windy, 14’C. Cloudy and windy overnight, a bit of rain at times – heavy rain possible by dawn, 11’C.

Sunday likely starts with heavy rain. This will clear to sunny spells – but there will be a fair amount of heavy showers in a strong wind, and later in the afternoon these could be rather prolonged. Windy and around 11’C – a chance of gales in the evening, though uncertain at this stage. Become calm overnight with clear spells, down to around 7’C.

By Monday we start to see high pressure push up from the south.

Sunny spells though hazy at times, and generally variable amounts of cloud. Around 11’C. Cloudy overnight and becoming quite windy again, 10’C.

Tuesday looks most likely fairly cloudy, windy and mild. Some uncertainty over cloud levels – some sunshine certainly possible, though it could easily be dull all day, perhaps a spot of light rain. 14’C. A band of rain crossing overnight – cooler to follow.

Wednesday sees us in a cooler sector of air, but there will be sunny spells also. Chance of showers, probably quite windy, around 10’C.

Rain looks likely either Wednesday night or Thursday – details starting to get a bit sketchy by this point.

I was expecting high pressure to build either over or close to the UK for late next week and into next weekend, bringing something cooler with greater chance of fog/frost. Models have switched away from that today to suggest something more unsettled. I still think high pressure building is the slightly more likely outcome, despite what the models are saying today, but I’m not as confident as I was.

Still think there is a fairly good chance of something colder than normal towards the end of November and into December – probably more frosty kind of cold instead of anything wintry, but far too early to know.

As it stands, this looks to be the best window of opportunity for a cold spell this winter, as the signs suggest it will often be mild after this possible cold spell.

Have a good weekend.

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