Thursday 11th February 2021

So a few more days of cold weather before the pendulum swings back to milder conditions – though with some resistance.

Amusingly 3 separate people sent me a photograph of the same frozen tree this week. Thanks to Kate, who’s photograph I used.

Tonight sees some clear spells, it will be frosty and down broadly to around -4’C, perhaps -6’C in a few spots.

Friday sees broken cloud in the morning, increasing spells of sunshine as the day goes on. Cold and quite windy, scraping to 1’C. Mostly clear overnight, still quite windy with a hard frost, down to around -6’C – even lower in a few sheltered spots.

For Saturday we have our high pressure block close to our east, weather fronts trying to push in from the west thanks to a rather large low pressure trough in the Atlantic.

Saturday starts sunny. Cloud will thicken somewhat as the day goes on with a weather front trying to push in from the west, but it will remain bright with hazy sunshine. Probably not getting above 0’C, and feeling colder in the wind. The aforementioned weather front should fizzle out by time it reaches here – but I cannot rule out a little light snow falling in the evening. Otherwise variable amounts of cloud overnight, down to around -2’C.

Sunday sees the wind veer more southerly and things will become less cold, albeit still feeling cold in strong winds. A weather front will arrive at some point, roughly afternoon time but feasibly morning or evening in play too. Possibly sleet, snow or even freezing rain at first, but fairly swiftly turning to rain. Quite showery in nature, this continues on and off overnight, and temperatures recovering to around 7’C.

By Monday we are in a much milder south-westerly flow. Quite a lot of cloud around, some sunshine, 11’C. Rain likely spreading up from the south-west overnight, around 8’C.

Tuesday is uncertain on details, though probably a spell of rain at some point, and still fairly mild.

From Wednesday and into the weekend, things should settle down once more. I don’t rule out some further rain, but mostly it should be dry with some sunshine. Temperatures starting mild (a small chance very mild and almost spring-like for a day or two…small chance), but most likely becoming fairly cold once more, if not quite as cold as at the time of writing.

Broadly speaking, the end of February and beginning part of March is more likely to be cold than otherwise – and snow could again be possible.

Very plausible that we end up with high pressure over Scandinavia and another blast of easterly winds and snow showers, or high pressure over the UK and it being generally cold and frosty.

High pressure currently looks like dominating March and April, so drier than normal, sunnier than normal – colder than normal at times, especially the first half of March – but warmer than normal at times also. I’m certainly more positive about spring from a temperature perspective than I was a couple of weeks ago, but still time for things to change further.

After the winter of doom, it is nice to be thinking about the possibility of sitting outside in the sunshine, in 5-6 weeks or so.

Spring is slowly on the way, but almost certainly further wintry weather beforehand.

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