Thursday 11th August 2022

I read earlier that a drought may be officially declared tomorrow. So I guess it is ironically appropriate that finally there is a chance of some heavy showers next week.

Alas, though showers will break out – the nature of showers means that some places could miss out. And heavy showers onto such dry ground isn’t ideal – the ground is so dry that if we catch any particularly torrential downpours, the rain will run off and bring the potential for localised flooding.

We should get some showers, we could get a thunderstorm – but details still to be determined as to how widespread the showers will be next week.

Until then – very hot and sunny.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear skies and a warm night, down to around 18’C.

High pressure remains in charge for Friday.

Glorious sunshine all day and very hot, reaching 34’C or so in a notable easterly breeze. Clear skies overnight and another warm night, likely no lower than 19’C for most.

Saturday sees glorious sunshine almost all day – though a little bit of fair-weather cloud will likely bubble up later in the afternoon. Very hot, 34’C, maybe 35’C. High cloud moving up from the south in the evening and overnight, which will keep temperatures up overnight – probably no lower than 20’C for most.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine, though there will be high cloud at times which may make the sunshine hazy – notably in the afternoon, some more fair-weather cloud may also bubble up in the afternoon. I cannot totally rule out a shower for late afternoon or evening, but very unlikely. Very hot, around 34’C. Another warm night with high/mid-level cloud at times, probably no lower than 20’C.

By Monday we have low pressure developing broadly somewhere over the southern half of the UK.

Details become more sketchy from here, but broadly, hazy sunshine in the morning, some scattered heavy showers, possibly thundery, developing in the afternoon. An educated guess would suggest around a 30% chance of catching one or two. Still on the hot side, and humid too, somewhere between 27’C and 30’C. Some clear spells overnight and a bit less warm, roughly down to 18’C.

Tuesday is similarly tricky. Still on the hot and humid side, reaching somewhere between 26’C and 29’C. Heavy showers, possibly thundery will break out in places over England, though how widespread and how likely we are to get any is uncertain. Put it down as a 50% chance, if you wish. Appreciate this isn’t too helpful, but until we know how the low pressure will develop, details on showers will remain uncertain. The shower chance remains overnight and it should be feeling fresher, say 15’C or so.

Wednesday will be notably fresher, with temperatures closer to 24’C or so. Heavy showers still possible, though more likely in the morning as the low pressure (probably) sinks further south.

The more likely outcome for Thursday sees some cloud, some sunshine and the odd shower. Temperatures roughly around 24’C. Though fairly low confidence.

Low confidence for Friday and into next weekend. The slightly more likely outcome sees low pressure fairly close to our north, with some showers at times and average temperatures. The slightly less likely outcome sees high pressure spread up from the south/south-west once more – with increased sunshine and temperatures. Close call at the moment, need to get through a few more days before it can be called.

I still think the more likely outcome for the latter part of August and beginning of September is changeable, though sunshine and very warm/quite hot weather somewhat more dominant than showery phases. And still chances of short hot/very hot spells.

Enjoy the sunshine if you can bear the heat, and good luck in the shower/downpour lottery next week.

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