Thursday 10th September 2020

Mostly dry, sometimes sunny and becoming hot by Monday.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear spells at times, down to around 8’C so a little chilly.

Friday sees high pressure to the south, low pressure to the north.

Generally sunny spells and cloudy spells, sunshine slightly more likely during morning and late afternoon, though no real set pattern expected. Feeling warm, around 21’C. Clear spells overnight though more in the way of cloud by dawn, around 12’C.

For Saturday we have a very weak weather front over us, mostly bringing cloud but there might be the odd spot of light rain. The sun will also break through the cloud at times, more likely morning and especially late afternoon onwards. Still reasonably warm, around 21’C. Cloud continuing to thin overnight, down to around 12’C.

Sunday sees a major change as the jetstream buckles and allow hot air to start spreading north.

I do bang on about hurricane season often causing unexpected changes in the weather patterns – a week ago I was expecting the coming weekend to become cooler and unsettled, yet the opposite is happening. I believe this change in forecast being because of the strong typhoon that hit Japan/Korea and the ripple effect of that interacting with the jetstream has caused the jetstream to buckle affecting us downstream in the UK. I think this is what has happened but I haven’t had the time to look into it properly.

Sunday will therefore see good sunny spells. There will be a bit of cloud around, but generally a very nice, very warm day. Around 24’C. Around 12’C overnight in clear skies.

Monday looks gloriously sunny. It will be hot, 28’C will be reached, but 30’C is possible. A warmer night than of late, minimum of 16’C.

Tuesday should remain hot and sunny, but fresher air will likely be starting to push in from the west by the end of the day. A bit of afternoon cloud and a small chance of a shower later. Around 28’C. Small chance of a shower or even a thunderstorm overnight, around 15’C. Fog possible by dawn.

Things quickly become very uncertain from here. We’ll have low pressure close to our west – some model output moves it south towards Portugal which would keep the warmth, but also give us a chance of showers.

Other model output takes the low pressure across the UK, bringing wind and rain – once it interacts with the jetstream.

Said jetstream pattern will be key (and normally is) to our weather for the end of next week – and the pattern is very uncertain, mostly due to the amount of potential tropical storms and hurricanes over the Atlantic towards America.

I think the most likely outcome for Wednesday is that it remains warm or very warm, but a chance of heavy showers, possibly thundery.

After that, well uncertainty is very kind. Perhaps the slightly more likely outcome for Thursday onwards is that it remains warm or very warm, with heavy showers or heavy rain at some point between Thursday and Sunday.

That’s about the best I can do at the moment. I like to be able to forecast 7-10 days, but 5 days is really the limit at the moment.

Have a good weekend. And enjoy the sunshine!

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