Thursday 10th November 2022

Scream if you wanna go milder…

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy and very mild, the odd fragment of light rain possible. 14’C.

Friday sees high pressure close to our south-east with a southerly flow – would be heatwave conditions in summer.

Mostly cloudy to start. The cloud will gradually thin and break as the day going on, to bring bright or sunny spells. 16’C, maybe 17’C – breezy too. Some clear spells overnight, though somewhat more cloud towards dawn, and fog patches possible in a few spots. 11’C.

Saturday starts with some cloud, a few fog patches, but will become sunny – with sunshine pretty much all afternoon. Reaching 17’C, maybe 18’C. Wow. Mostly clear skies overnight, a small chance of mist/fog forming towards dawn, down to around 10’C.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine, apart from any possible early mist/fog patches, and some high cloud later in the afternoon. Around 17’C in a southerly breeze. Clear skies at first overnight, cloud thickening somewhat later, a small chance of mist/fog in places too. Down to around 8’C.

Monday starts to see a battleground scenario, with low pressure systems trying to push in from the west, but a high pressure block strengthening to our east.

Monday sees the first attempted weather front cross the UK – he makes it across, though weakening, so will bring some rain but nothing too much. Probably some sunshine to finish the day, though will depend on how long the weather front takes to cross. 13’C. Clear skies at first, down to around 6’C, before the next weather front arrives, bringing wind and some outbreaks of rain at some point in the second half of the night.

Tuesday starts with rain, some heavy, as this weather front slowly pushes east. Uncertain on when it clears – any time between midday and 6pm would be a best guess – these interplays between weather fronts and strong high pressure blocks do cause uncertainty. Around 12’C – should the rain clear midday (ish) then sunny spells and showers will follow. Clear spells overnight, a bit cooler, say 5’C – showers possible, though uncertain.

By Wednesday, the weather fronts will be winning the battle (for now?). Probably dry with sunny spells during the day, though not especially high confidence. Around 10’C. The next weather front may cross overnight.

That’s about as far as I can go with any confidence, until we resolve what the high pressure block to our east does.

Most likely, for now, the high pressure block remains to our east, and low pressure continues to be in control over the UK, with further showers and wind/rain from Thursday through the weekend.

But there is a smaller chance that it pushes west, and brings drier and somewhat colder conditions, with some frost. It wouldn’t totally shock me to see something proper cold…highly unlikely, but it is a possible iteration from where we are right now, believe it or not.

I do still expect late November and especially December to be mostly under the influence of high pressure – more likely positioned to bring colder weather than milder weather, but to be determined.

Enjoy the mild.

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